Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER PRECIP...WHILE MVFR TO VFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP...WHILE VARIABLE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
BEHIND THE LINE. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S. WILL SEND A MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST
TEMPS AND ALSO TO UP POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO A
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL KEEP THE UPDATE TO THE
TEMPS/POPS MENTIONED ABOVE.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  60  49  62 /  80 100  40  70
FSM   60  67  51  63 / 100 100  60  80
MLC   57  61  49  63 / 100 100  30  60
BVO   54  60  48  62 /  80  90  40  80
FYV   59  65  52  63 / 100 100  60  80
BYV   59  68  52  63 / 100 100  80  80
MKO   57  61  49  62 / 100 100  40  80
MIO   58  62  52  63 /  90 100  60  80
F10   55  60  48  63 /  90 100  30  60
HHW   59  64  50  63 / 100 100  40  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ010.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TONIGHT
   THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS MORNING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER BOW SEGMENTS.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF THE AREA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REPEATED ROUNDS
OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCLUDING A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...
PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HIGH WIND/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
RIVER FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT
/OKCFFATSA/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA.
ALSO...DEPENDING ON THE AVAILABLE SURFACE INSTABILITY...AT LEAST A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS
SHORTER TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...FIRST RESPONDERS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SWIFT WATER RESCUES MAY BE NECESSARY AS
ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE HIGH WATER. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS
MAIN-STEM RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
COULD EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING BY MID WEEK. PERSONS
SHOULD CONSIDER CANCELING ANY OUTDOOR CAMPING ACTIVITIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ANY FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

OKZ062-067-191830-
MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
100 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES AND NORTHEASTERN WAGONER

AT 100 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MAZIE...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
CHOUTEAU...LOCUST GROVE...PRYOR...SALINA...SPAVINAW STATE PARK AND
SPAVINAW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3646 9500 3622 9508 3607 9519 3607 9521
      3605 9521 3600 9524 3601 9544 3637 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 198DEG 40KT 3610 9530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

OKZ057-058-062-063-191915-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-
130 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...DELAWARE...EASTERN MAYES AND SOUTHWESTERN
     OTTAWA

AT 130 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTH OF LANGLEY TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF SPAVINAW
STATE PARK TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
KETCHUM...ROSE...CHLOETA...CLEORA...BERNICE...BERNICE STATE PARK...
AFTON...HONEY CREEK STATE PARK...FAIRLAND...GROVE AND JAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3679 9474 3635 9466 3616 9505 3616 9523
      3678 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 219DEG 38KT 3647 9501 3635 9500
          3620 9507