Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
920 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AS A COLD FRONT AND LINE OF STRONG STORMS ENTER THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS
AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING..

DISCUSSION...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET. INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED... STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN
AROUND MID EVENING AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED...LEADING TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
VERIFIES...A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FOR FRIDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
AFTER A REPRIEVE ON SUNDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

OKZ054-059-060-064-290445-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-
1015 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE AND TULSA

AT 1015 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK TO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SHAMROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...KEYSTONE
STATE PARK...SKIATOOK...KELLYVILLE...SPERRY...SAND SPRINGS...
SAPULPA...KIEFER...COLLINSVILLE...TULSA...JENKS AND OWASSO.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3589 9662 3635 9624 3642 9593 3642 9582
      3600 9582 3581 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 243DEG 66KT 3632 9620 3590 9655