Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 44 BUT ARE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SO THE CURRENT
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA CLOSEST TO THE TRUE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT IN MOST PLACES BUT THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-032300-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
449 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTED THROUGH THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHED FROM THE
WEST. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN CAPABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...THOUGH A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT DOES EXIST. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK MAYBE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             1 W SKIATOOK            36.37N 96.02W
02/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IN SKIATOOK.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

OKZ054-059-060-064-031915-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-
1244 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE AND WESTERN
     TULSA

AT 1244 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
MANNFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MANNFORD...KEYSTONE STATE PARK AND WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3633 9624 3624 9605 3603 9630 3608 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 216DEG 34KT 3610 9632