Alert archive / Oklahoma / Flash Flood Watches in 2012
Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Tulsa, OK
NWS Tulsa, OK issued this flash flood watch at Mar 18, 2012, 3:46 PM CDT for 21 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Arkansas. It took effect at Mar 19, 2012, 1:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 51 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 18, 2012, 3:46 PM CDT (20:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 19, 2012, 1:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Mar 21, 2012, 3:51 PM CDT
- In force
- 51 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Tulsa, OK
- Flood severity
- None
All 25 counties
Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK
The radar
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 771 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -226 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 892 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 239 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 243 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
815 WGUS64 KTSA 182046 FFATSA URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 346 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS WEEK... .A SLOW MOVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A FOCUSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN OK MONDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-058-063-068>076-191015- /O.CAN.KTSA.FA.A.0002.120319T1800Z-120321T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KTSA.FF.A.0001.120319T1800Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OTTAWA-DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE- MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON... HUGO...MIAMI...JAY...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA... SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU 346 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON... CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW... DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MCINTOSH... MUSKOGEE...OTTAWA...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA AND SEQUOYAH. * FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A FOOT AND 15 INCHES. WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AREAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO HIGH...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. && $$ OKZ055>057-060>062-065>067-191015- /O.NEW.KTSA.FF.A.0001.120319T1800Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE- WAGONER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA... TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER 346 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...OKFUSKEE. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CRAIG... MAYES...NOWATA...OKMULGEE...ROGERS...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. * FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A FOOT AND 15 INCHES. WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AREAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO HIGH...THUS THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CHANGED TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. && $$
8 follow-up statements
923 WGUS64 KTSA 190855 FFATSA FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 355 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS WEEK... .A SLOW MOVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A FOCUSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-055>058-060>063-065>076- 191700- /O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.120319T1800Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-TULSA-ROGERS- MAYES-DELAWARE-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE- MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON... HUGO...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...TULSA... CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER... TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW... MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU 355 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKFUSKEE... OKMULGEE...OTTAWA...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS... SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. * FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A FOOT AND 15 INCHES. WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AREAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WOULD RESULT SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. && $$
466 WGUS64 KTSA 192021 FFATSA URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 321 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... .A SLOW MOVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A FOCUSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS BEGUN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OKZ064-200430- /O.EXB.KTSA.FF.A.0001.120319T2100Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CREEK- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BRISTOW 321 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...CREEK. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CREEK COUNTY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AERIAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL LIKELY FALL BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. && $$ ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-055>058-060>063-065>076- 200430- /O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-TULSA-ROGERS- MAYES-DELAWARE-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE- MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON... HUGO...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...TULSA... CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER... TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW... MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU 321 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKFUSKEE... OKMULGEE...OTTAWA...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA...ROGERS... SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A FOOT AND 15 INCHES. WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AREAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WOULD RESULT SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. && $$
819 WGUS64 KTSA 200639 FFATSA FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 139 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... .A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-055>058-060>076-202100- /O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-TULSA-ROGERS- MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR- MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON... HUGO...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...TULSA... CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER... TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW... MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU 139 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...CREEK...DELAWARE...HASKELL... LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA... OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OTTAWA...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA... ROGERS...SEQUOYAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BENTONVILLE...MCALESTER LINE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT. WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AREAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WOULD RESULT SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. * SWIFT WATER RESCUES MAY BE NECESSARY AS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE HIGH WATER. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MAIN-STEM RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING INTO WEDNESDAY. OUTDOOR CAMPING ACTIVITIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTPONED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING NEAR MAIN-STEM RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH RIVER FORECASTS CLOSELY TODAY. MANY RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD RISE TO MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR FLOOD BY WEDNESDAY. EQUIPMENT AND LIVE STOCK IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE EVACUATED TO HIGHER GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES AND FLOODING IS ONE OF THE LEADING CAUSES OF WEATHER RELATED DEATHS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY. IT IS ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADWAY. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES... CREEKS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO RAPID RISES AND MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/TULSA. && $$
551 WGUS64 KTSA 202008 FFATSA FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 308 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... .A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT. OKZ055-056-060-061-064>067-070-071-073-202115- /O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-TULSA-ROGERS-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER- MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-PITTSBURG- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...TULSA... CLAREMORE...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...MUSKOGEE... EUFAULA...MCALESTER 308 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG COUNTY TO NOWATA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE CANCELLED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THIS LINE. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH. $$ ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-057-058-062-063-068-069- 072-074>076-210900- /O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-CRAIG-OTTAWA-MAYES-DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR- SEQUOYAH-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON... HUGO...VINITA...MIAMI...PRYOR...JAY...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL... SALLISAW...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU 308 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... CHEROKEE...CHOCTAW...CRAIG...DELAWARE...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MAYES...OTTAWA...PUSHMATAHA AND SEQUOYAH. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BENTONVILLE... MCALESTER LINE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL MORE INCHES. WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AREAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WOULD RESULT SHOULD THESE AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE. * SWIFT WATER RESCUES MAY BE NECESSARY AS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE HIGH WATER. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MAIN- STEM RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING INTO WEDNESDAY. OUTDOOR CAMPING ACTIVITIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTPONED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING NEAR MAIN- STEM RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH RIVER FORECASTS CLOSELY TODAY. MANY RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD RISE TO MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR FLOOD BY WEDNESDAY. EQUIPMENT AND LIVE STOCK IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE EVACUATED TO HIGHER GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. REMEMBER...MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES AND FLOODING IS ONE OF THE LEADING CAUSES OF WEATHER RELATED DEATHS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS RAPIDLY. IT IS ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADWAY. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES... CREEKS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO RAPID RISES AND MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/TULSA. && $$
834 WGUS64 KTSA 210232 FFATSA FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 932 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 OKZ049-053-057-062-074-075-210345- /O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-CRAIG-MAYES-HASKELL-LATIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...VINITA... PRYOR...STIGLER...WILBURTON 932 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED. $$ ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ058-063-068-069-072-076-211200- /O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120321T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- OTTAWA-DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-SEQUOYAH-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...MIAMI...JAY... TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...SALLISAW...POTEAU 932 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... CHEROKEE...DELAWARE...LE FLORE...OTTAWA AND SEQUOYAH. * UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING ALREADY TAKING PLACE. * SWIFT WATER RESCUES MAY BE NECESSARY AS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE HIGH WATER. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MAIN-STEM RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING INTO WEDNESDAY. OUTDOOR CAMPING ACTIVITIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTPONED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PERSONS NEAR MAIN-STEM RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH RIVER FORECASTS CLOSELY TONIGHT. MANY RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL RISE TO MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR FLOOD BY WEDNESDAY. EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE EVACUATED TO HIGHER GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...CREEKS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO RAPID RISES AND MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/TULSA. && $$
285 WGUS64 KTSA 210844 FFATSA URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 344 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ058-063-068-069-072-076-211645- /O.EXT.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120322T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- OTTAWA-DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-SEQUOYAH-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...MIAMI...JAY... TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...SALLISAW...POTEAU 344 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... CHEROKEE...DELAWARE...LE FLORE...OTTAWA AND SEQUOYAH. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GIVEN THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS. SEVERAL MAIN STEM RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...CREEKS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO RAPID RISES AND MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING AND FLOOD EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/TULSA. && $$
116 WGUS64 KTSA 211552 FFATSA FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1052 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ058-063-068-069-072-076-220000- /O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120322T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- OTTAWA-DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-SEQUOYAH-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...MIAMI...JAY... TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...SALLISAW...POTEAU 1052 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN... MADISON...SEBASTIAN AND WASHINGTON. IN OKLAHOMA...ADAIR... CHEROKEE...DELAWARE...LE FLORE...OTTAWA AND SEQUOYAH. * UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. * RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GIVEN THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS. SEVERAL MAIN STEM RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO UNKNOWN DEPTHS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...CREEKS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO RAPID RISES AND MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING AND FLOOD EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/TULSA. && $$
356 WGUS64 KTSA 212051 FFATSA FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 351 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ058-063-068-069-072-076-212200- /O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120322T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN- OTTAWA-DELAWARE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-SEQUOYAH-LE FLORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE... EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE... VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...MIAMI...JAY... TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...SALLISAW...POTEAU 351 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVERLAND FLOODING REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Mar 18, 3:20 PM CDT, 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 18, 3:20 PM CDT, 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
...LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...
LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY HEAD IN THIS
DIRECTION OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE EXACT DETAILS STILL YET
TO BE DETERMINED. MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE
SPLIT IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAM FLOWS WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY CREATE A CUTOFF CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE TRENDS IN TODAYS SOLUTIONS IS TO CUT
THE LOW OFF IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FARTHER WEST...WHICH HAS CAUSED
SOME CHANGES IN OTHER VARIABLES WHICH I'LL DISCUSS IN A BIT.
SOME DRYLINE STORMS WILL GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT AFFECT US. ANOTHER BAND OF
STORMS WILL GET GOING CLOSE TO 12Z OUT IN WESTERN OK AS THE
PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP
EAST WITH THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND WHERE THE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST OVER SOUTHEAST OK...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LVL SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
STORMS TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF A FEW
DISCRETE CELLS CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
LINE...THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHER. FLOODING WILL NOT BE A BIG
CONCERN ON MONDAY...BUT THIS THREAT WILL GO UP MARKEDLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THE WESTWARD TREND TO CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LOW NOW SUGGESTS THAT
THE INITIAL HEAVY RAIN BAND WILL SET UP FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
OK MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN BAND
WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER WESTERN TX/OK...MOVING INTO WESTERN AR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FACTORS THAT WILL MAKE THIS RAINFALL
SIGNIFICANT INCLUDE: 1) WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR 2) DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE STALLING BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW...LEADING TO TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE
SAME AREA AND 3) HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES.
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM SW TO NE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA AND THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS EAST. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3
TO 7 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND A FEW ISOLATED AREAS COULD
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEFINITELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING...BUT ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. A LOT OF
THE RIVERS IN OUR AREA ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...SOME
MAJOR OR POSSIBLY RECORD. THIS WILL BE A HUGE AND POSSIBLY
CATASTROPHIC WATER EVENT FOLKS...SO PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
THE MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD LIFTING THE UPPER LOW NORTH AND
THEN EAST BASICALLY AROUND OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. I HAVE KEPT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NOW.
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THE WEATHER WILL
BE QUIET BY NEXT WEEKEND...HOPEFULLY ALLOWING SOME TIME TO DRY
OUT.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 67 70 53 60 / 50 100 90 90
FSM 67 75 60 68 / 20 90 90 90
MLC 66 71 54 63 / 40 100 90 90
BVO 63 70 52 59 / 50 100 80 80
FYV 64 70 57 67 / 20 90 90 90
BYV 62 70 57 68 / 20 90 90 90
MKO 63 72 57 62 / 40 100 90 90
MIO 65 72 57 65 / 30 100 90 90
F10 66 70 53 61 / 40 100 90 90
HHW 65 73 58 67 / 30 100 90 90
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
LONG TERM....30Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 18, 1:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 125 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-190630- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 125 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER... THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ONSET...OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING. FIRE WEATHER DANGER. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING. DISCUSSION... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL OF PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT WITH GREATER CHANCES WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION MORE TO A FLOODING THREAT MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY REMAIN STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED...MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS /OKCFFATSA/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...FIRST RESPONDERS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SWIFT WATER RESCUES MAY BE NECESSARY AS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE HIGH WATER. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MAIN-STEM RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING BY MID WEEK. PERSONS SHOULD CONSIDER CANCELING ANY OUTDOOR CAMPING ACTIVITIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY FLOOD PRONE AREAS. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 3:42 AM CDT | Flood Watch | TSA | Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer and 5 more | 12 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Oklahoma, 2012Flash Flood Watches in Arkansas, 2012Every flash flood watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.