Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

August 25, 2012Lyon County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this special weather statement at Aug 25, 2012, 4:21 PM CDT for Lyon County, Kansas. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 25, 2012, 4:21 PM CDT (21:21 UTC)
Expired
Aug 25, 2012, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
39 min
Issued by
NWS Topeka, KS

County Lyon County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2012-08-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 99 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2012-08-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 173 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
99 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
831 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
173 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
210 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 25, 3:27 PM CDT, 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 25, 3:27 PM CDT, 54 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE STACKED UPPER SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES FROM EAST
TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN KANSAS...WITH SLOWER
MOVEMENTS NEAR DEFORMATION AREA IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. MINOR HEATING IN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

THE WET PERIOD WILL PERSIST FOR ALL LOCATIONS INTO AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...REACHING
FAR EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRYING TREND
WORKING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION AS SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN BACKED AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
MATERIALIZE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN-UP WITH LOW STORM BASES. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
TRAINING/SLOW-MOVING STORMS ALSO A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY WHERE
HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THIS EVENT. INQUIRIES TO COUNTY
AGENCIES AND RIVER REPORTERS HAVE YIELDED NO PROBLEMS WITH THE WATER
THUS FAR...AND A WIDESPREAD THREAT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE UNLIKELY
DESPITE MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH. SUNDAY MIDDAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD PRESENT ANOTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE CONCERN WITH
A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY DEPENDING ON PERIODS OF CLEARING AND
INSOLATION.

65

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN
SHIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BECAUSE OF THE HAVE INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BY MONDAY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON CO. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST IN SPITE OF SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK
WAVE MOVING SOUTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND LARGE
SCALE VERTICAL MOTION LOOKS WEAK.

OTHERWISE FOR MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING AS AN UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVERHEAD.
FORTUNATELY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAK SFC RIDGING FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS LASTING THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. ADDITIONALLY 850 TEMPS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DO
NOT SHOW MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TEMPS
GRADUALLY WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND AROUND 90 GIVEN
850 TEMP PROGS OF UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20C. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 60S.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS PREVAILING BANDS OF SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER IN THE VCNTY THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC
LOW GRADUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD. UNDERNEATH THE LIGHTER SHOWERS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNLESS A HEAVIER SHOWER CROSSES OVER TERMINAL
WHERE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TEMPORARILY. LATEST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES SUGGEST CONDITIONS DOWNGRADING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
OVERNIGHT AS COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
INCREASES. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIME LENGTH OF IFR CONDITIONS SO HELD
MVFR CIGS/VIS AFTER 08Z AT KMHK AND 09Z AT KTOP/KFOE UNTIL LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 10KTS BACK TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
TO AROUND 5KTS AFTER 03Z AT KTOP/KFOE.

BOWEN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 25, 5:32 AM CDT, 10 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
532 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-261045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
532 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING
STANDING WATER TO URBAN AREAS OR RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 25, 10:56 AM CDT, 5 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1056 AM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW JUNCTION CITY     38.98N 96.86W
08/25/2012  M4.64 INCH       GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

            2 DAY STORM TOTAL

&&

JB
Local storm report, Aug 25, 2:21 PM CDT, 2 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
221 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE NILES              38.96N 97.46W
08/25/2012  M1.94 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMOUNT SINCE MIDNIGHT

0215 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LONGFORD                39.17N 97.33W
08/25/2012  M4.61 INCH       CLAY               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            4.61 STORM TOTAL. 0.75 SINCE 8 AM.

&&

WOLTERS
Special weather statement, Aug 25, 4:21 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

KSZ054-252200-
LYON-
421 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LYON COUNTY...

THROUGH 500 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE AMERICUS...EMPORIA
AIRPORT...EMPORIA...BUSHONG AND ALLEN. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 144 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.
MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 138 COULD
ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 9635 3869 9622 3861 9605 3841 9603
      3824 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 224DEG 29KT 3846 9636 3826 9632

$$ LEIGHTON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 25, 5:03 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTOPOsage42 min
Aug 25, 5:32 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningTOPGeary3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.