Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MCV FROM CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH SKIES
SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
CLIMB...BUT HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 90S SOUTH TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER.

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE CONVECTION CHANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  FOR TONIGHT...THINK FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAVE LOWS IN LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK WITH PEAK
HEATING IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR OKLAHOMA...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
OUR AREA MAY LIE WITH ANY STORMS OR COMPLEX THAT GETS GOING IN
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND LIFTS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH BUT WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES. NEXT CHANCE
FOR STORMS WOULD COME WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS
ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES
TOMORROW.  LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z...BISECTING AROUND 18Z AND THROUGH THE AREA
BY EVENING.  INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE
1000-2000J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHILE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY
NOT REACH THE 500J MARK BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. SHEAR ALSO BETTER
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH 30KTS ACROSS THE AREA COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS. FOR THE MOST PART WOULD THINK STRONGER
STORM POTENTIAL MAY COME FROM EITHER BACKBUILDING STORMS FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...OR GENERATE ON THEIR OWN IN LATE
DAY HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WIND ANTICIPATED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STRONG STORMS. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
80S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 100 FAR SOUTHEAST.

67

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AND WILL ONLY ADDRESS PRIMARY CONCERNS AND HIGHLIGHTS IN UPCOMING
PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS
WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS PROVIDES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN...SMALL
PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION SEEMS WARRANTED. THE PRECISE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE BETTER
DIAGNOSED IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE
CWA...RESULTING IN EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND POTENTIALLY ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 09Z BUT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
AT ANY TAF SITE IS LOW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR TAF
SITES BY MID MORNING AND WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STRONGER NORTH
WINDS ARRIVE AND THINGS DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
VFR CONDTIONS EXCEPT IF A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS A
TAF SITE.

60

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-042045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
343 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY.
A FEW STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
119 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

KSZ035-037-040700-
DICKINSON-MORRIS-
119 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
DICKINSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 200 AM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MORRIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
DICKINSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE HERINGTON...BURDICK...WILSEY...COUNCIL GROVE LAKE...COUNCIL
GROVE AND DUNLAP.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 9694 3861 9716 3868 9717 3870 9637
      3852 9636 3852 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 253DEG 41KT 3862 9702