Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES AS TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE AXIS OF THE WARMFRONT
LIES ALONG THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE 90S STILL AT THIS HOUR. CONVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND EAST NE ATTM.

SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CTRL KS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY BELOW 10000FT SO WOULD EXPECT
THREAT FROM ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA TO BE DOWNDRAFT
WINDS.  DO THINK STORMS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE
AND DRY AIR...BUT MCS PROPAGATION PARAMETER WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE
THESE STORMS WILL KEEP MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND WILL KEEP POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE LOCALLY IMPACTED BY OUTFLOWS BUT OVERALL
EXPECT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 70S.  TUTT LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK...AND ADVECTS COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL
THEREFORE CARRY TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.  AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS PROGGED TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD SO MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER.

67

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: RELENTLESS HOT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AND CENTER OVER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE/EXPANSE IN THE POOL OF WARM
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE PBL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST
SKIRTS PORTIONS OF SE KS. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. IN SUMMARY...LITTLE APPRECIABLE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL EXIST IN THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES 96-103 AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 70S.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AFFECT KMHK AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER NC KS CAN MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS KFOE AND KTOP. RIGHT
NOW...AM THINKING STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THIS AREA
BUT NOT CERTAIN. AFTER ABOUT 08Z...WOULD EXPECT ALL CHANCES TO END
AT TAF SITES...AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-020215-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
913 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
936 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYETTA                 39.34N 95.72W
06/30/2012                   JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FOUR INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH DOWN. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1027 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

KSZ020-021-035-010400-
CLAY-CLOUD-DICKINSON-
1027 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD AND
NORTH CENTRAL DICKINSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD AND NORTH
CENTRAL DICKINSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WAKEFIELD.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 9743 3929 9696 3921 9696 3906 9721
      3921 9737 3930 9737 3931 9747 3947 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 320DEG 16KT 3933 9724