Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FORECAST - TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KANSAS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING THE FINAL DAY OF THESE WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS AS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ON A LINE BETWEEN KLNK AND KRSL WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE
CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHICH
BREAKS OUT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND
UNZIPS THE NE-SW ORIENTED FRONT TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH THE MID LEVEL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER(~700 MB)
WHICH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE IS RATHER FORMIDABLE. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT UPWARD MOVING PARCELS WILL
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP...IT WILL BE TOUGH GIVEN THE 8-9C TEMPS
AT 700 MB...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY WARM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM SC KANSAS. ANOTHER ASPECT
REGARDING TODAYS CONVECTION IS A SUBTLE WAVE WHICH 500 MB PROFILERS
AT HILLBORO AND HAVILAND BACKED SLIGHTLY...THEN VEERED...WHICH
INDICATES A SUBTLE WAVE GOING THROUGH SC KANSAS. SOME ENHANCED
CUMULUS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES HAVE FORMED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE MAY ALSO GIVE
AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST A BETTER CHANCE TO OVERCOME THE MID LEVEL
TEMP INVERSION...BY PROVIDING SOME MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT. ITS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM
MID LEVEL LAYER. SHOULD CONVECTION BE ABLE TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 21-23Z TIME PERIOD
ONCE THE FRONT REACHES KMHK. GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY OF 2500-3500
J/KG THERE WILL BE ENOUGH POTENTIAL ENERGY TO GET STRONG UPDRAFTS
ALONG THE FRONT. MODEST WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER
WILL GIVE ANY CELLS A LITTLE EXTRA LIFE...AND MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT
FOR LARGER HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TIME OF
ARRIVAL TOOL AND LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES THAT THE FRONT
SHOULD BE CLEARED OF THE FORECAST AREA BY ROUGHLY 03Z...AND WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FRONT COMES THE END OF THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST
CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 12Z AS SOME TRAILING STRATIFORM LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST POST FROPA. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA EXPECT MONDAY TO BE DRY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS CHARACTERIZED BY
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

JL

MID TERM - MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. MONDAY MORNING MAY
START OFF WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA AMID SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING...A SITUATION NOT UNLIKE THE MORNING SHOWERS IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY NOON THOUGH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEREAFTER.
THERE WILL BE A PRETTY STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND MIXING
TO AROUND 825 HPA EXPECTED WHERE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SHOULD HELP
CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
MIXING SHOULD HELP MODERATE TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS A BIT...WITH
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S EXPECTED...WHILE WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY BE A
BIT COOLER WITH MID 40S EXPECTED UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIMITED
CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL...
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S EACH DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
STABLE 850 TEMPS AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDNESDAY MAY BE
JUST A SHADE COOLER WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

BARJENBRUCH

LONG TERM - THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...
LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S...THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE
AREA IS DOMINATED BY A ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT MAY COUPLE WITH THE
WEAK TROUGHS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND
OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS LOW THOUGH...AND HAVE
GONE WITH LOW END POPS AT THIS TIME.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS WITH INCREASED
NORTHERLY WINDS...ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...BUT STAY SUSTAINED AROUND 10-15 KTS. MORE CONVECTION SHOULD
FORM THIS EVENING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES MAINLY PRIOR
TO 06Z. AREA OF MVFR STRATUS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z THEN SCATTER TO VFR BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
234 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
234 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A HIAWATHA TO ABILENE LINE. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
532 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ026-040-062245-
DOUGLAS-JEFFERSON-
532 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

THROUGH 545 PM CDT...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORMS MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER
IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9517 3898 9518 3896 9518 3886 9549
      3915 9549 3924 9518 3916 9517 3913 9517
      3912 9518 3898 9518 3898 9516 3898 9515
      3897 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 229DEG 13KT 3892 9543

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ026-040-070000-
DOUGLAS-JEFFERSON-
614 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 700 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
MCLOUTH...PLEASANT GROVE...LAWRENCE...BALDWIN CITY...VINLAND AND
EUDORA. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 195
AND 205 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE
WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9505 3881 9544 3942 9529 3942 9517
      3897 9518 3898 9516 3897 9513 3898 9511
      3896 9510 3896 9508 3898 9509 3899 9507
      3898 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 273DEG 9KT 3933 9520 3889 9531

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
707 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             1 S LAWRENCE            38.94N 95.26W
05/06/2012  E1.25 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOST HAIL WAS QUARTER SIZE OR SMALLER. FEW STONES TO HALF
            DOLLAR SIZE.

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
724 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ054-070100-
LYON-
724 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LYON COUNTY...

THROUGH 800 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 MPH
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE EMPORIA AIRPORT. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 125 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3838 9636 3840 9636 3840 9621
      3817 9616 3817 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 269DEG 11KT 3831 9641

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
743 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ040-070130-
DOUGLAS-
743 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...

THROUGH 830 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE VINLAND AND BALDWIN CITY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9505 3878 9527 3890 9524 3891 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 275DEG 7KT 3883 9520

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