Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHWEST TO AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO SOUTHERN
NM.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC
MODELS DO SHOW 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...I CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY...ANY HAIL THAT MY BE PRODUCE BY A STRONGER
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SMALL...PEA SIZE.

THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT...SOME
OF THE DRIZZLE MAY MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW
HOURS. WARM ROAD SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT ICE FROM FORMING ON MOST
ROADWAYS...THOUGH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER 800 AM.

  THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY NOON AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CAA AND CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. IN FACT...HIGHS
MAY REACH THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY AFTERNOON.

GARGAN

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S BY
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE A DECENT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW  WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD IN THE EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. THE
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND BY LATE
SUNDAY WILL BE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW AND LEANED TOWARD TO THE
SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF. SOUNDING PROFILES THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEP
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY MID WEEK.

53

&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S BY
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL BE A DECENT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW  WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD IN THE EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. THE
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AND BY LATE
SUNDAY WILL BE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW AND LEANED TOWARD TO THE
SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF. SOUNDING PROFILES THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEP
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BY MID WEEK.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL SITES WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AFTER 02Z TO 04Z TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH EXTENT OF
SHALLOW LIFT OVER THE FRONT WHICH COULD LOWER CIGS FURTHER AND
PERHAPS VIS CONDS WITH IT HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INSERT INTO THE FCST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1111 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-090515-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1111 PM CST WED MAR 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LYON...COFFEY
AND ANDERSON COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

SLEET MAY ALSO MIX IN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET COULD OCCUR IN
SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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