Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
643 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM - THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
STREAM NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND CONTINUING THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION. AT 21Z...THE DRY LINE
EXTENDED FROM NEAR NORTON KANSAS TO DODGE CITY KANSAS AND WAS
PROGRESSING EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WAS MOVING EAST WITH EVIDENCE OF A PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHING
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER ENERGY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL LAST UNTIL
THE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE DRY LINE TO APPROACH CONCORDIA AROUND 7 PM...MANHATTAN BY
9 PM...AND TOPEKA BY 10 PM. ANTICIPATE ABOUT AN 80 MILE WIDE BAND OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO PERSIST ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE DRY LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA WITH SBCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG. 0-6
KM SHEAR OF 70+ KTS AND 0-1 SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT
EMBEDDED ROTATION WITHIN ANY UPDRAFTS THAT ARE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES IN SUCH A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THOSE STORMS WOULD THEN
LIKELY HAVE A VERY FAST STORM MOTION ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60 KTS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE IN QUESTION WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE STORMS CONSISTING OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
THIS EVENING AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE EVENING. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL IF FORCING IS SUFFICIENT. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ROOTED IN THE CAPE/SHEAR
RELATIONSHIP AS UPDRAFTS MAY BE OVERSHEARED. IF UPDRAFTS CAN SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILE...THEN MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS THAT HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...
BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR
ANYTHING LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE. DAMAGING WINDS IN THE 60 TO 65
MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS...MAINLY DUE TO
ALL OF THE AMBIENT WIND ENERGY JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...VERY LOW LCL VALUES...AND 0-3 KM
CAPE SUGGEST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT AS WELL IF ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE
SUSTAINED.

WEST WINDS WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE PASSES...BRINGING
AN END TO PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY...WINDY...AND WARM
GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WIND GUSTS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN THE AREA.

BARJENBRUCH

MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

WARMING TREND STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS
SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB
WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING ON THURSDAY. OBTAINED THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
THURSDAY BY MIXING AIR PARCELS FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 MB TO THE
SURFACE. THE RESULTING HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH SOME AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 POSSIBLY REACHING ABOVE 70 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMING THURSDAY WARMING TREND MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ITS WAY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY COULD BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE BEST
UPPER FORCING COMES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
MEAGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST 150 MB...SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
24...BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO PRECIP MODE AS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER
COULD GET SATURATED...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT THE PRECIP TOTAL AND MITIGATE
EVEN MORE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS INTO NEXT
WEEK.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS 1500-2500 FEET WILL PERSIST IN THE TAFS UNTIL DRY SLOT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST 03-05Z TIME FRAME WITH CLEARING SKIES.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS SITES IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS
WELL. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BEHIND THE DRYLINE. VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST BEYOND 05Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 10 PM IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND FROM 8 PM THROUGH 1 AM IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

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