Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
303 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM - THROUGH THURSDAY...

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
INTO SD. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEB DUE TO
THIS WAVE. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN KS. AT 19Z THE WARM FRONT WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE KS RIVER.

FOR TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HIGH
RES HRRR HAVE SUGGESTED THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP ON THE WARM FRONT AROUND 4 PM...THEN A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARM SECTOR MOVING INTO
THE AREA...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NEAR 8 C/KM WITH ML CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. SO THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. IF DISCRETE STORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT...THERE
COULD BE A TORNADO THREAT INITIALLY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEER IS
RATHER MARGINAL SO THIS WOULD WORK AGAINST TORNADOS. IF THE LINE OF
STORMS IS ABLE TO FORM A STRONG COLD POOL...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN AFTER DARK IN EASTERN KS. SO WITH THE
STRONG DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...WILL INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO CATEGORICAL. EXPECT LOWS
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREV FORECAST WITH AROUND 50 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

BY THURSDAY...THINK THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THERE IS STILL SOME PV ANOMALIES
MOVING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE ALONG THE MO RIVER.
ALTHOUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SHIFTED TO THE
EAST. SO THERE MAY BE SOME PRECIP LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING
THE DAY. BUT WOULD EXPECT THAT TO BE MAINLY SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE
SOME INSOLATION THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
WITH THE MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KS AND THE MID 60S NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER.

WOLTERS

MID TERM - THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY WEATHER STORIES IN THE MID TERM. THE FIRST
SURROUNDS A CHILLY START TO FRIDAY MORNING. A COOL AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVERHEAD WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. EXPECT MOST CLOUD COVER TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A COOL AIRMASS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ANY UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS COLD FORECAST WOULD REST WITH CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL AS ANY MID
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN A SHARP JUMP IN LOW
TEMPS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THE OTHER FOCUS DURING THE MID TERM IS ON RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. THE ADDITION OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND A VERY WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO COME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR SATURDAY WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE
80S.

BARJENBRUCH

LONG TERM - SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WHILE LONG WAVE RIDGING GRADUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TO BE IN A
BIT OF A PINCH POINT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EPISODES OF ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM ADVECTION ATTEMPTS TO SURGE NORTH OVER A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS. THUS...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AS WELL AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP APPEARS TO COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DRY WEATHER APPEARS TO COME MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOISTURE PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...LIKELY IN THE 90S AT TIMES...BUT WILL
ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER. ANY SUNNY DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 90S
WHILE LOW TEMPS MOST NIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02Z ALL SITES. DO EXPECT -TSRA TO
AFFECT TERMINALS 02Z TO 04Z MHK AND 03Z TO 05Z TOP/FOE AS COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. EXPECT WIND SHIFT AFT 08Z MHK AND
09Z TOP/FOE. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 02Z TO 09Z BECOMING VFR AFT 09Z.

BYRNE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-312115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
407 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW RANDOLPH          39.48N 96.79W
05/30/2012  E60 MPH          RILEY              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW OLSBURG           39.43N 96.63W
05/30/2012  E60 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW OLSBURG           39.44N 96.65W
05/30/2012  E60 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ021-036-302345-
CLAY-GEARY-
623 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND
NORTHWESTERN GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 645 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN GEARY COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WAKEFIELD...MILFORD LAKE AND MILFORD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3923 9718 3923 9696 3922 9696 3922 9686
      3913 9685 3914 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 270DEG 26KT 3920 9708

$$ BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW WESTMORELAND      39.37N 96.47W
05/30/2012  E60 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW WESTMORELAND      39.30N 96.46W
05/30/2012  E60 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC