Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Topeka, KS

774 
WWUS53 KTOP 300604
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSC045-300614-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-120530T0615Z/
DOUGLAS KS-
104 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3886 9531 3893 9538 3905 9523 3904 9518
      3897 9518 3898 9516 3897 9513 3898 9511
      3896 9509 3898 9509 3899 9507 3898 9505
      3892 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0604Z 250DEG 31KT 3896 9508

$$

LEIGHTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MEAN WESTERLIES WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE WAVES WERE MOVING EAST...ONE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER
KS. AT THE SFC...19Z OBS SHOWS THE FRONT /OR AT LEAST THE WIND
SHIFT/ HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS ANDERSON AND COFFEY COUNTIES WHERE A CU
FIELD IS SEEN TRYING TO EXPAND ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.

FOR TONIGHT WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE DEPENDENT INITIALLY ON DIURNAL HEATING EARLY AND THEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
ANDERSON AND COFFEY COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL WITH STRONG ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB FOR THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
ACT UPON. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE SEEN WITHIN THIS LAYER FROM THE OUN AND AMA SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING. SO WHILE I CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS. THEREFORE
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY
MARGINAL SO PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE LOW. THINKING
THE NIGHT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CLEAR AND DRY...HAVE MIN TEMPS IN
LINE WITH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
SURFACE RIDGING.

WEDNESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED WITH PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS
ARE STARTING TO KICK OUT SOME ENERGY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE
OVER THE NORTHWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH THE
ECMWF STILL HINTING AT SOME KIND OF A MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
KS...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS IT APPEARS THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE TRENDED THE POPS UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS REMAIN. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE TEMPS GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION
THANKS TO AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. THINK HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 70S.

WOLTERS

CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CONCERNED THAT BETTER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHERE AIR IS MORE UNSTABLE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...OR TO
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CONVERGENCE IN THE COLUMN AND BETTER SYNOPTIC
LIFT COME TOGETHER. EC SOLUTION BRINGS 850MB DEFORMATION ACROSS
THE AREA AND THAT WOULD GIVE MORE LIFT FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. HAVE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST BUT HOPEFUL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS AND HAVE KEPT SOME PRECIP CHANCES CLEARING
QUICKLY TO THE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW IS QUITE COOL...AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S THURSDAY WITH
NEAR 70 FOR FRIDAY.

WEATHER PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO SATURDAY AS WESTERN RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME STORMS SATURDAY AS FRONT MOVES NORTH...OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY WITH MIDDLE
80S TO NEAR 90 WEST POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RIDGING PLAYS OUT IN
THE UPPER PATTERN AND WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
ORIENTED. BOTH EC AND GFS SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
CWA BEHIND THE UPPER TROF MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. THE EC
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND WARMER WITH THE RIDGING WHILE THE GFS
MORE ZONAL...WITH THE BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. COULD GET SOME PRETTY WARM
TEMPERATURES IF WE END UP MIXING INTO THE THERMAL RIDGE...OR
COULD GET LUCKY AND GET SOME RAIN IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. KEPT A
CON CENSUS FORECAST OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES INTO TUESDAY. 67

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL PLAN FOR VCTS AT TOP AND FOE FOR A FEW HOURS WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. MHK APPEARS TO BE ON THE EAST END OF THINGS AT THIS
POINT. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR PRECIP INCLUSION IN THE
LATER HOURS BUT TIMING AND PERSISTENCE STILL
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND 18Z. WILL GO WITH PROB30 AT THIS
POINT BUT BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH MAIN SYSTEM AFTER 00Z.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1050 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-310400-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1050 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HAIL AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ON FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY
EVENING TO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ040-055-300545-
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-
1209 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND WEST
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND WEST CENTRAL DOUGLAS
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE GLOBE...CLINTON LAKE...CLINTON AND LONE STAR.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 9527 3876 9572 3884 9574 3887 9561
      3887 9550 3890 9550 3894 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 259DEG 30KT 3881 9562

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     HAIL             4 E CARBONDALE          38.82N 95.61W
05/30/2012  M1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     HAIL             ALTA VISTA              38.86N 96.49W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL FOR 10 MIN.

1208 AM     HAIL             7 E ALTA VISTA          38.86N 96.36W
05/30/2012  E0.88 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     HAIL             5 W ESKRIDGE            38.86N 96.20W
05/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     HAIL             4 E CARBONDALE          38.82N 95.61W
05/30/2012  M1.50 INCH       OSAGE              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL COVERS THE GROUND

&&

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ038-039-054-055-300615-
LYON-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
1233 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHAWNEE...OSAGE...
NORTHEASTERN LYON AND SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 115 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SHAWNEE...OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN
LYON AND SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HARVEYVILLE...DOVER...READING...BURLINGAME...
AUBURN...OSAGE CITY...MELVERN LAKE...SCRANTON...CARBONDALE...SOUTH
TOPEKA...LYNDON...BERRYTON...MELVERN...POMONA LAKE...
TECUMSEH...RICHLAND...QUENEMO AND OVERBROOK. MOTORISTS ALONG
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 134 AND 188 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 9552 3846 9617 3898 9616 3906 9559
      3905 9558 3907 9553 3907 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 265DEG 29KT 3890 9604 3850 9606