Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Topeka, KS

865 
WWUS53 KTOP 290108
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
808 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

KSC111-290145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120329T0145Z/
LYON-
808 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL LYON COUNTY...

AT 806 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF AMERICUS...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF EMPORIA...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADMIRE.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 133 AND 142.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3867 9607 3846 9608 3849 9630 3864 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 272DEG 9KT 3856 9620
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.50IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

...MESO AND AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE LAST HOUR. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL. HOWEVER AS
SEEN WITH RECENT STORMS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE CONCERN IS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AND ANY STORM
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO FEED OFF OF THE
INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OF HAIL AND
POTENTIAL AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING.

WOLTERS

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING OF TS IN THE TERMINAL IS STILL NOT OBVIOUS WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING LESS DEFINED. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS UNTIL TS
BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IS SKIES CLEAR OUT. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE FOCUS IS MORE ON CONVECTION.

WOLTERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /324 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012/
ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MINOR H5 TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AT 19Z...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF DDC. A WARM FRONT
FRONT EXTEND EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KS. THE SFC WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF
I-70. SOUTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S
AND SBCAPE WAS IN THE 2,000 TO 2,500 J/KG RANGE. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 3,000 TO 3,500
J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL EXPAND
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE STORMS REACH THE WARM SECTOR THE NEW UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 40 TO
50 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. GIVEN THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL ROTATE. THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...MAY BE UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. THE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAKER...THUS TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BRIEF
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ALSO, IF
SUPERCELLS ARE ISOLATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS THE RUC AND NAM
MODELS SHOW THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
KTS...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY ISOLATED
SUPERCELL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES FROM 1Z TO 4Z.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO SEGMENTED SQUALL LINES OR QLCS'S.
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
QLCS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT I-70 NORTH TO THE NE BORDER.
THOUGH STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES. IF A QLCS
DEVELOPS THAN HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS.

THURSDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE 12Z NAM MODEL FORECAST SBCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 3,000
J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AHEAD OF THE H5
TROUGH BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL VEER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OR SQUALL LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS THE INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA. IF THE SFC FRONT MOVES A BIT FASTER
THEN NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

GARGAN

CONVECTION TIED TO COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR FRIDAY. MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING COULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM...BUT WITH EXPECTED MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...WOULD
NOT THINK THAT FROST WOULD BE LIKELY.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMUP IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

60

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
611 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NEAR A FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND 60
TO 70 MPH WINDS.  IN ADDITION...OTHER STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MOVE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...ALSO CONTAINING WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             DUNLAP                  38.58N 96.37W
03/28/2012  E1.25 INCH       MORRIS             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
714 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             1 SW EMPORIA            38.39N 96.19W
03/28/2012  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
717 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             DUNLAP                  38.58N 96.37W
03/28/2012  E1.75 INCH       MORRIS             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             2 W OVERBROOK           38.78N 95.59W
03/28/2012  E1.25 INCH       OSAGE              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
743 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             ALTA VISTA              38.86N 96.49W
03/28/2012  E0.88 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
748 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             5 S BUSHONG             38.57N 96.26W
03/28/2012  E2.00 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE