Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
609 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...UPDATE TO FORECAST AND ALSO TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED WINDS TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA SO HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS..PRIMARILY DUE TO WINDS..IN THE NORTH FOR
THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO SELECTED
ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EARLIER UPDATED TO ADD SMOKE TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA PER OBSERVATIONS. BRUSDA/BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0010Z.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE CANADIAN BORDER AT 0000Z.
THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WELL
AS WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH KCTB
TO KHVR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. BEHIND THE FRONT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MORE INTENSE RAIN ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS BY 0000Z THURSDAY. BLANK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BEGINNING AT NOON THROUGH 9 PM MDT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE HI-LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE HI-LINE THIS EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA
AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST MONTANA BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
SHIFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012/

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA BORDER WILL MOVE EAST AND A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BORDER AROUND 00Z. PRECIPITATION
WILL LAG SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. PRECIP TOTALS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND..UNLESS GETTING UNDERNEATH A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF
TENTHS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BRISK AND THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH...THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE DRYING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY. ZELZER

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ALL THE WAY INTO NRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PICTURE FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST MT
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST WHEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA AND MONTANA ACCOMPANIED BY A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MTNS SUN AFTN/EVE WHILE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS DRY.  FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE ON MONDAY...
GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS THERE.  NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE PRECIP EVENTS AS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 0.75 INCH OR LESS.  AFTER
BRIEFLY FLATTENING IN RESPONSE TO THE TROF PASSAGE...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS ON TUES FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS.  ALSO ON TUES...A NEW PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PACNW COAST AND MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AS
EARLY AS WED AFTN BUT MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS POINT SO FUTURE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY.
FINALLY...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MID 80S ON FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR SAT THRU MON...THEN BACK TO THE MID 80S ON TUES.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  64  41  77 /  80  70  10   0
CTB  44  62  38  75 /  80  50  10   0
HLN  54  66  45  79 /  60  70  10   0
BZN  49  65  38  77 /  30  60  20   0
WEY  40  69  30  73 /  10  30  10   0
DLN  50  68  40  79 /  20  40  10   0
HVR  51  68  41  78 /  80  50  10   0
LWT  48  61  38  71 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BEAVERHEAD...
BLAINE...BROADWATER...CASCADE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND
CLARK...CHOUTEAU...EASTERN GLACIER...EASTERN PONDERA...EASTERN
TETON...FERGUS...GALLATIN...HILL...JEFFERSON...JUDITH BASIN...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MEAGHER...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...TOOLE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRUSDA/BLANK
LONG TERM...BLANK
AVIATION...BLANK

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MTZ009>010-044>046-151200-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN
PONDERA-
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ008-011>015-047>055-151200-
BEAVERHEAD-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND
CLARK-MADISON-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-BLAINE-EASTERN
TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
825 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST FORT  SHAW              47.51N 111.81W
08/14/2012  E60 MPH          CASCADE            MT   PUBLIC

            LARGE DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
827 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE CASCADE            47.26N 111.69W
08/14/2012  M70 MPH          CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            70 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
831 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     AUGUSTA                 47.49N 112.39W
08/14/2012  E65 MPH          LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH IN THE AUGUSTA AREA.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
840 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CASCADE                 47.27N 111.70W
08/14/2012  M98 MPH          CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            98 MPH PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED

&&

PN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
853 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MTZ011-013-045-047-150415-
BLAINE MT-CHOUTEAU MT-HILL MT-LIBERTY MT-
853 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LIBERTY...HILL...
NORTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU AND BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HILL AND
CHOUTEAU AND BLAINE COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HAVRE...
   CHINOOK...
   ZURICH...
   HARLEM AND FORT BELKNAP...

LAT...LON 4900 10822 4875 10825 4873 10831 4843 10834
      4843 10840 4797 10844 4798 10860 4791 10866
      4819 11102 4901 11098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 270DEG 33KT 4855 10978