Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2012
Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT
NWS Great Falls, MT issued this special weather statement at Jul 26, 2012, 3:57 PM MDT for Pondera County, Teton County, Montana. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 26, 2012, 3:57 PM MDT (21:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 26, 2012, 4:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS Great Falls, MT
Counties Pondera County, MT, Teton County, MT
The radar
The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -303 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1321 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 170 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 26, 2:42 PM MDT, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 26, 2:42 PM MDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 242 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2012 .DISCUSSION... THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN CONDITIONS OR THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. RIDGE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN INTERMITTENT PASSAGES OF MONSOONAL/PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTN/EVE. EXPECT MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY TO BE ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND OVER SOUTHWEST MT THIS EVE BUT FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIDER COVERAGE OF STORMS TOMORROW EVE...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HILINE COUNTIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST MT. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH A REDUCED CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE HILINE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW THIS EVE THRU SAT EVE. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 90S OVER THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY...WITH PLEASANTLY COOLER UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE MTNS. WARANAUSKAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION AND INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AND USHERS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THAT WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY...THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE EUROPEAN MAINTAINS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE GFS HINTING AT READINGS DROPPING BACK TO SEASONAL READINGS ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1720Z. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CREATING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MOISTURE COMING INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE OVER SOUTHWEST MT AND SMALL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS FOR KBZN/KHLN BUT PROBABILITY FOR STORMS AT OTHER TERMINALS IS LOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. WARANAUSKAS && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED FOR AT THIS TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE COUPLED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE MOST DAYS...BUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF BREEZY WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS (MAINLY 1 PM TO 5 PM) MOST DAYS. ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FIRE DISTRICTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AT TIMES...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL THOUGH WETTER STORMS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. BRUSDA/WARANAUSKAS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 92 60 92 / 20 20 20 20 CTB 52 88 56 88 / 20 20 20 10 HLN 57 90 59 91 / 20 20 20 20 BZN 51 90 51 90 / 20 30 30 20 WEY 43 79 42 81 / 20 30 20 20 DLN 54 86 52 87 / 20 20 20 20 HVR 56 92 60 93 / 10 20 20 20 LWT 53 87 57 88 / 10 20 20 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...WARANAUSKAS LONG TERM...EMANUEL AVIATION...WARANAUSKAS WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 26, 3:51 AM MDT, 12 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 351 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2012 MTZ008-012>015-048>055-271200- BEAVERHEAD-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK- MADISON-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN- FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN- 351 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD GREATLY BE APPRECIATED. MTZ009>011-044>047-271200- NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-TOOLE-LIBERTY- EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE- 351 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 26, 3:57 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
357 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2012
MTZ009-046-048-049-262245-
EASTERN PONDERA MT-EASTERN TETON MT-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
MT-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT MT-
357 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PONDERA AND CENTRAL TETON
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...
AT 355 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HEART BUTTE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHOTEAU...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH IN LESS THAN A HALF HOUR.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUPUYER...
BYNUM AND CHOTEAU...
PENDROY...
VALIER...
CONRAD AND BRADY...
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.
IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4844 11202 4790 11166 4758 11236 4815 11274
4845 11210 4845 11205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 235DEG 28KT 4812 11257 4771 11229
COULSTONThe office that day
Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 4:24 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | TFX | Madison | 51 min |
| Jul 26, 5:58 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | TFX | Fergus | 62 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.