Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1154 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.UPDATE...WENT THROUGH A FEW HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLIER THIS
MORNING BUT ACTIVITY HAS TAPERED OFF AS THE NOCTURNAL MID-LEVEL
JET DISSIPATED. AM EXPECTING A FEW MORE HOURS OF GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER BEFORE SEVERE ACTIVITY STARTS UP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST/POPS TO REFLECT
THIS LULL WITH THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GREAT FALLS TO
HAVRE. FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MY WESTERN CWA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM. RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE BUT MAY BE STARTING AN HOUR OR
TWO TOO LATE...ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION IS NOT AS CLEAR FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE AND MAKE THE DECISION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN A DRY
AIRMASS OVER SW MT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE FRONT FOR AREAS N AND W OF GREAT FALLS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOENISCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 118 AND MEAGHER COUNTY
IN ZONE 117 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM 10 AM MDT UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY. SUK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012/
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE CONVECTION PERIOD CONTINUE
EARLY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED STARTING IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY MID DAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 110...111...118 AND MEAGHER COUNTY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE
117. FERGUS COUNTY AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTY WILL ALSO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED...BUT CURRENTLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA DUE TO THE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO A
MAXIMUM VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GUSTY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
THE HUMIDITY VALUES TO STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF
RED FLAG WARNINGS. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OF NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE OREGON COAST TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OTHER HIGH TERRAIN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...FURTHER
LIMITING PRECIPITATION. SUK

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO ERN MT LATE THURS INTO FRI.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS SRN ALB/SASK FRI AFTN/EVE BRINGING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
HILINE AND CENTRAL MT BUT PRECIP DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY OTHER THAN A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
REDEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL SUN EVE.  AT THAT POINT A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROF
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE WEST PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY MON MORNING.  THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ON MON WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HILINE.  DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
ON TUES UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS FROM FRI
THRU SUN.  THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING SUN NIGHT WILL DECREASE TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MON AND TUES.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  48  73  48 /  30  10  10   0
CTB  64  46  67  44 / 100  40  10   0
HLN  80  48  75  48 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  82  40  77  42 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  68  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  75  40  76  44 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  81  49  74  46 /  20  20  10   0
LWT  83  44  70  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING EASTERN GLACIER...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT GALLATIN...MADISON...
MEAGHER.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BEAVERHEAD.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BROADWATER...
CASCADE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...JEFFERSON.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
543 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

MTZ008-014-015-052>055-271145-
BEAVERHEAD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-JEFFERSON-
BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
543 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ009-010-048-271145-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
543 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT FROM 4 PM TROUGH MIDNIGHT.

A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...OR HAIL ARE APPRECIATED..

MTZ011>013-044>047-049>051-271145-
HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
543 AM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...OR HAIL ARE APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
132 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     HAIL             6 W CARTER              47.78N 111.09W
06/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       CHOUTEAU           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BETWEEN DIME AND QUARTER SIZE FALLING.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
135 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             11 N BLACK EAGLE        47.68N 111.31W
06/26/2012  E1.00 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MERCER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
142 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 W CUT BANK           48.63N 112.57W
06/26/2012  M55 MPH          GLACIER            MT   PUBLIC

            WIND GUST TO 55 MPH AT 1246 PM AND HEAVY RAINFALL OF
            0.70 INCHES MEASURED AT 135 PM

&&

MERCER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
146 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

MTZ011-013-044-045-262015-
CHOUTEAU MT-HILL MT-LIBERTY MT-TOOLE MT-
146 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TOOLE...LIBERTY...
WESTERN HILL AND NORTHERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 142 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES EAST OF
SUNBURST TO 17 MILES EAST OF THE KNEES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   CHESTER...WHITLASH...JOPLIN...INVERNESS AND  RUDYARD...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4842 11018 4800 11088 4893 11160 4901 11132
      4901 11057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 242DEG 38KT 4885 11141 4809 11086

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT BENTON             47.83N 110.66W
06/26/2012  E45 MPH          CHOUTEAU           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 45 MPH WIND GUST IN THE FORT BENTON AREA. NO
            PRECIPITATION YET.

&&

BRUSDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

MTZ011-013-045-262100-
CHOUTEAU MT-HILL MT-LIBERTY MT-
220 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LIBERTY...HILL AND
NORTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

AT 218 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES NORTH OF
JOPLIN TO 8 MILES WEST OF GILDFORD TO 12 MILES WEST OF BIG
SANDY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   GILDFORD...BIG SANDY...BOX ELDER...KREMLIN...AND ROCKY BOY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4899 10974 4854 10959 4802 10956 4804 11042
      4854 11061 4896 11104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 270DEG 37KT 4890 11076 4854 11044
          4812 11033

BRUSDA