Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1005 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES THIS EVENING AS SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA IS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. THE AIRMASS HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WEST OF A KHLN TO KGTF
TO KCTB LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THIS LINE WITH SOME
STORMS BECOMING STRONG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
THIS LINE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 07Z WITH SKIES
CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 249 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER STATIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DEEP LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. ENERGY LOBES SPINNING OFF THE MAIN LOW
WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF ACTION IS
LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHICH IS BETTER PLACED
WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY SHIFTS INTO ALBERTA. MPJ

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THE ZONES
WILL BE UNDERNEATH MOIST...UNSETTLED FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL ADD MOISTURE TO A DRY AIRMASS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL ROTATE NORTH OVER THEN
NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA. THE BEST AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH CHANCES DECREASING EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND LOCATIONS WITH AFTERNOON OR
EVENING COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD SEE GOOD LIFT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL DROP. BEST CHANCE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE
AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY THURSDAY AND REMAIN DRY AND STABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ZELZER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND WINDY FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MISSOULA FORECAST
OFFICE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONES 110 AND 111
FOR SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT ANOTHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MONDAY AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ZONE 118 WILL BE
SPARED THE STRONGER WINDS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT HIGHLIGHTS
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  90  59  90 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  54  78  55  81 /  70  20  20  10
HLN  58  93  57  92 /  20  10  10  20
BZN  52  92  53  92 /  10   0  10  10
WEY  46  82  47  83 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  52  88  52  88 /   0  10  10  20
HVR  60  90  61  93 /  20  10  20  10
LWT  58  88  58  90 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY BEAVERHEAD...
JEFFERSON...MADISON.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
303 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

MTZ008-015-052-242115-
BEAVERHEAD-MADISON-JEFFERSON-
303 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ051-053>055-242115-
FERGUS-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
303 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND PLAINS. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS BUT NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MTZ009>014-044>050-242115-
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-
CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-
303 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND PLAINS. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS BUT NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
814 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE CHOTEAU            47.82N 112.17W
06/23/2012  M2.20 INCH       TETON              MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.2 RAIN IN 30 MINUTES WITH HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
818 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             8 ENE CHOTEAU           47.87N 112.02W
06/23/2012  M1.75 INCH       TETON              MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL MOSTLY .25 TO .375 BUT A FEW STONES MEASURED TO
            GOLF BALL.

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
851 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             4 NW BRADY              48.08N 111.90W
06/23/2012  E1.00 INCH       PONDERA            MT   PUBLIC

&&

PN

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