Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
450 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALL EYES REMAIN ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AS IT TRAVERSES THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ISAAC
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTH-WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1020MB RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
AREA OF RAINFALL/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE SCATTERED
VARIETY SHOWERS/STORMS NORTHWARD FROM TAMPA BAY ALONG THE NATURE
COAST. GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL STORM NEAR KEY WEST AND
THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH ARE CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COMMON. LOOKING AT THE KTBW 18Z
SOUNDING...THE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EVEN STRONGER WITH
35-40 MPH AT 1000FT AGL. ANY OF THE PASSING RAINBANDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN THIS MOMENTUM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WHILE STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE...AN ISOLATED TORNADIC
CELL OR 2 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE BANDS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL...AND ALSO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

MONDAY...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ISAAC
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED BANDS OF
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER EVEN INLAND ZONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO STILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF ISAAC...LEADING TO CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY PASSING CONVECTIVE CELLS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WHILE THIS SHOULD ALSO
SLOWLY DECREASE THE PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION...
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH IN THE
FORECAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN WE CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SOLAR INSOLATION DURING TUESDAY TO DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN.
WILL KEEP LIKELY WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GRIDS...ALTHOUGH
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THIS PERIOD WOULD GENERALLY BE LOWER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE IMPACTS OF ISAAC PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (MIAHLSTBW) ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT HURRICANES.GOV.

&&

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
ISAAC EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. THE
FORECAST CAN TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER. HAVE FAVORED THE
LATEST GFS WHICH BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THAT RIDGES DOWN TO THE EAST GULF AND FL...BACKING DIMINISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
MOIST ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALTHOUGH POPS WILL DROP BY
10-20 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
AROUND NORMAL.

&&

AVIATION...
RAIN BANDS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE OF RA CURRENTLY OVER PGD...FMY AND RSW. EXPECT AREA TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH TO SRQ...PIE...TPA AND LAL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPO SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE AND MVFR AND
PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. MVFR/LCL IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY.

&&

MARINE...
ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO OUR SOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
COASTAL ZONES. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
ISAAC...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ROUGH IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE IMPACTS OF ISAAC PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT (MIAHLSTBW) ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT HURRICANES.GOV.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  87  79  88 /  90  80  50  60
FMY  77  88  79  89 / 100  80  50  60
GIF  75  89  77  90 /  90  80  40  60
SRQ  79  88  79  89 / 100  90  50  60
BKV  77  89  78  89 /  80  80  40  60
SPG  79  88  81  89 / 100  90  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-
     PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
     20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
LONG TERM...RUDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
511 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
511 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON...FROM NUMEROUS IN THE SOUTH TO
SCATTERED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. IF THUNDER
IS HEARD OR LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

...TROPICAL IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC OFF THE CUBAN COAST EAST OF HAVANA EARLY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS TRACK MOVES ISAAC INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY EARLY
MONDAY WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE MAIN THREATS BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT AND ARE...AN INCREASED RISK OF TORNADOES AS RAINBANDS FROM
ISAAC REACH THE AREA LATER TODAY....INLAND FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WORST CASE FLOODING INUNDATION OF UP TO 3 TO 5
FEET EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FEET NORTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER...ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL IN THE SURGE ZONE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO CONSULT THE LATEST FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON GULF WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO SUWANNEE...WITH A HURRICANE WARNING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL
MILES WEST OF THE COAST BETWEEN BONITA SPRINGS AND ENGLEWOOD.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 45
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FEET BY
TONIGHT WITH BAY AND INLAND WATERS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. THE GULF
WATERS UNDER THE HURRICANE WARNING CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 50 TO 60
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...TROPICAL IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...
OFFSHORE THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THIS UP COMING WEEK. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ISAAC WILL BE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AN INCREASED RISK OF TORNADOES...INLAND
FLOODING WITH A POSSIBLE 5 TO 8 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL...AND STORM
SURGE AND STORMS TIDE WITH WITH WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATIONS OF 3
TO 5 FEET IN THE SURGE ZONES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

09/RKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
103 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 S CYPRESS GARDENS     27.96N 81.69W
08/26/2012                   POLK               FL   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS. SEVERAL TREE LIMBS BROKEN.

&&

JILLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
639 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FLZ056-057-262315-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
639 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN HARDEE AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...

AT 639 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD...5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SEBRING...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE NEAR...
  SEBRING.
  SEBRING SHORES.
  CREWSVILLE.
  SWEETWATER.
  GARNDER.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2737 8131 2733 8156 2734 8182 2752 8184
      2755 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 084DEG 31KT 2745 8143