Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1253 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE
TO ROTATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO GET SUPPRESSED FROM S FL PENINSULA TO OVER
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. WEAK SURFACE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WEAKENING BOUNDARY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. GENERAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED SEA BREEZE INDUCED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR LOWS AND IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z AND HAVE
TEMPOS IN THE TAFS TO COVER THIS...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6
TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS WILL
RETURN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO MEANDER AND HOLD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
FMY  76  93  76  94 /  20  30  20  40
GIF  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  76  91  76  92 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  72  92  72  93 /  20  30  20  20
SPG  80  91  80  92 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...24/COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
550 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
550 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE BAY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE BEST
CHANCES INLAND. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

COLSON

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