Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AXIS
OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM MANATEE COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS POLK
COUNTY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER LEVY
COUNTY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REALLY BLOSSOM AS THEY
APPROACH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE COAST...THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

GFS NOW SHOWING RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY WITH GOOD INLAND PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS
THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD HOLD SEA BREEZES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. PLAN TO STICK TO NAM SOLUTION SINCE IT IS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY THEN DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
SOUTH AND EAST.

DRY AIR PUSHES TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE FORT MYERS AREA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATERS
DROP TO LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF. LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND NAM MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT WILL
BLEND 2/3RDS NAM/MET TO 1/3RD GFS/MAV TO AT LEAST DEPICT SCATTERED
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A RENEWED AMPLIFICATION TO
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE FL PENINSULA LOOKS TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM CLIMATOLOGY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WITH NORMAL
DISTRIBUTIONS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RAINFALL CHANCES COULD BE ENHANCED ON ANY GIVEN DAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SUBTLE TROPICAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...NO CLEAR
SIGNAL IS EVIDENT IN THE PRESSURE PATTERNS FROM THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
07/00Z IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN
THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...ONE OR TWO MORE DAYS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES...THEN DRIER AIR
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WEATHER. RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONTINUED
AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  79  93 /  20  50  20  30
FMY  76  93  76  94 /  20  40  20  30
GIF  75  93  77  94 /  20  50  20  40
SRQ  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  20
BKV  74  93  73  94 /  20  60  20  40
SPG  80  90  81  92 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...MROCZKA
AVIATION...CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
421 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-070000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
421 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

MROCZKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
432 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ065-062045-
LEE-
432 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

AT 431 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER FORT MYERS
BEACH. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

AT 431 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL
CLOUDS...5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THOUGH A TORNADO HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED...THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND A TORNADO. STAY TUNED
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2643 8192 2644 8195 2647 8198 2648 8202
      2658 8206 2661 8173 2637 8176 2634 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 163DEG 6KT 2643 8188

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
448 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ060>062-065-062130-
DE SOTO-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
448 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL SARASOTA...EASTERN
CHARLOTTE...NORTHEASTERN LEE AND SOUTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH PORT TO
BABCOCK WEBB WMA TO ALVA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH PORT
TO 17 MILES EAST OF PUNTA GORDA TO 6 MILES NORTH OF LEHIGH
ACRES...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT NORTH
PORT...CLEVELAND...BABCOCK WEBB WMA AND LAKE SUZY...UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 167 AND 182.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

LAT...LON 2688 8188 2713 8237 2721 8197 2702 8155
      2664 8157 2661 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 270DEG 6KT 2709 8218 2688 8177
          2668 8160

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ049-062145-
PASCO-
500 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR WESLEY CHAPEL...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LUTZ...MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WESLEY CHAPEL AND LAND O LAKES...UNTIL
545 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 275 AND 285.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

LAT...LON 2836 8258 2842 8231 2818 8223 2818 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 158DEG 4KT 2821 8237

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
540 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ049-062145-
PASCO-
540 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY...

AT 540 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD ALONG STATE ROAD 52 EAST OF MOON LAKE ESTATES. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THE STORM MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

AT 540 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD...9
MILES NORTHEAST OF LUTZ...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 275 AND 285.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THOUGH A TORNADO HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED...THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND A TORNADO. STAY TUNED
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2833 8255 2841 8235 2822 8226 2818 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 156DEG 7KT 2826 8240

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
543 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N MOON LAKE ESTATES   28.33N 82.60W
08/06/2012                   PASCO              FL   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED A REPORT OF SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR MOON LAKE
            AND STATE ROAD 52.

&&

FLEMING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
618 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ055-056-060-062300-
HARDEE-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
618 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT SARASOTA...SOUTHERN MANATEE AND WEST
CENTRAL HARDEE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MYAKKA CITY TO
SOUTH VENICE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ARCADIA TO ENGLEWOOD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
MYAKKA CITY...VENICE GARDENS...MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK AND NOKOMIS...
UNTIL 700 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 191 AND 224.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2755 8262 2745 8203 2694 8237 2706 8246
      2723 8253 2727 8258 2730 8258 2741 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 124DEG 11KT 2742 8217 2699 8246