Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
229 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SCT SHRA HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CEN AND WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. NOT MUCH LTG AT
THIS POINT AND SEEING LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DUE TO SOME
MODESTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST. THE WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE S
OF TPA...HOWEVER THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR
THE COAST. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN ATL WILL
RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FL
PENINSULA WILL BE IN THE LESS FAVORABLE WNW QUAD OF THIS FEATURE
ON SAT AND THIS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASE POPS ON SAT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT AND I THE
DRIER NAM IS CORRECT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. POPS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN SLIGHTLY ON SUN AND INTO MON AS THE LOW MOVES
MORE OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE INCREASES. POPS WILL BE SCT SUN
AND MON AND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 40-50% CLIMO
VALUES. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS NEARING -9 DEG F WILL PROVIDE
INCREASE CHC OF ISOLD PULSE STRONG W/ POSSIBLY A FEW SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...STRONG H5 HIGH CENTER
NEARING 600 DM WILL PUSH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH WRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE AXIS MVG INTO CEN FL THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING POPS AND INCREASING TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH SOME BRIEF TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  76  92 /  20  30  10  50
FMY  75  92  75  92 /  20  30  10  50
GIF  74  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  40
SRQ  76  92  75  90 /  20  30  10  50
BKV  71  93  71  92 /  20  30  10  50
SPG  78  90  79  91 /  20  30  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-132115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
503 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH OTHER
STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL. THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION FORMING
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLZ050-132030-
PINELLAS-
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VENETIAN ISLES TO 6
MILES EAST OF FORT DESOTO PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMETTO...MOVING
WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING VENETIAN
ISLES...SNELL ISLE...VINOY PARK AND DOWNTOWN SAINT
PETERSBURG...UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2806 8283 2806 8280 2808 8278 2807 8266
      2795 8271 2782 8259 2770 8263 2769 8265
      2769 8271 2767 8270 2767 8267 2761 8273
      2772 8275 2780 8281 2789 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 093DEG 16KT 2784 8266 2760 8267

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FLZ060-062-065-132045-
SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEE...SARASOTA AND WESTERN
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSCAR SCHERER STATE
PARK TO ENGLEWOOD TO BURNT STORE MARINA TO ESTERO...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF VENICE TO ENGLEWOOD TO 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CAPE CORAL TO 6 MILES EAST OF FORT MYERS BEACH...MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED AREA INCLUDING MYAKKA
RIVER STATE PARK...WARM MINERAL SPRINGS...GULF COVE...
SARASOTA...VENICE...BOCA GRANDE AND PIRATE HARBOR...UNTIL 445 PM
EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2640 8191 2647 8198 2644 8203 2649 8220
      2682 8229 2731 8258 2732 8228 2717 8226
      2695 8207 2692 8217 2678 8214 2675 8224
      2669 8223 2669 8209 2692 8211 2694 8206
      2676 8190 2667 8169 2646 8164 2635 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 093DEG 12KT 2718 8244 2701 8237
      2671 8211 2647 8187