Alert archive / Florida / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

July 10, 2012Manatee County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this special weather statement at Jul 10, 2012, 2:39 PM EDT for Manatee County, Florida. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2012, 2:39 PM EDT (18:39 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2012, 3:30 PM EDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL

County Manatee County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 20 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1374 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -45 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 938 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 10, 1:54 PM EDT, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 1:54 PM EDT, 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FLORIDA WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THURSDAY.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH MODEL
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER TWO INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF
ENHANCED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MOVING UP THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT POPS TO BE 50 TO 60
PERCENT OVER LAND IN THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT...POPS WILL
BE AROUND 30 PERCENT OR LESS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR A TWO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)... STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL BE SUPPRESSED
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...WHILE THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OLD CONVECTION
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH
DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE WEST
COAST BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION WEST
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REACH TPA AND PIE AFTER 20Z SO ADDED
TEMPO FOR 20 TO 22Z THERE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO USE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCTS FOR LAL...SRQ...PGD...FMY AND RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE WATERS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH DAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL NEGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  90  76  90 /  30  60  40  50
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  30  60  30  50
GIF  74  92  74  91 /  20  50  30  50
SRQ  76  90  77  91 /  30  60  40  50
BKV  71  92  72  91 /  30  60  30  50
SPG  78  89  79  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
AVIATION...63/JILLSON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 5:25 AM EDT, 9 hours 14 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-102130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
525 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 2:39 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ051-052-055-056-060-061-101930-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MANATEE...NORTHERN SARASOTA...
NORTHWESTERN DESOTO...SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHWESTERN POLK
AND WESTERN HARDEE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...OR 19 MILES WEST OF
WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE MENTIONED
AREA INCLUDING MYAKKA HEAD...MYAKKA CITY...DUETTE AND SUN CITY
CENTER...UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2772 8251 2789 8222 2764 8181 2734 8193
      2712 8229 2750 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 126DEG 15KT 2747 8214

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 2:58 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		62 min
Jul 10, 2:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Citrus, Levy	51 min
Jul 10, 3:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Polk	39 min
Jul 10, 3:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Sumter	44 min
Jul 10, 3:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Manatee, Sarasota	42 min
Jul 10, 3:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Polk	46 min
Jul 10, 3:52 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		38 min
Jul 10, 4:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Hillsborough	39 min
Jul 10, 4:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Charlotte	50 min
Jul 10, 4:33 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		57 min
Jul 10, 4:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Hillsborough, Pinellas	27 min
Jul 10, 4:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas	66 min
Jul 10, 4:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas	64 min
Jul 10, 4:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas	45 min
Jul 10, 4:54 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		66 min
Jul 10, 4:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Charlotte, Lee, Manatee, Sarasota	61 min
Jul 10, 5:16 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		89 min
Jul 10, 5:25 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		65 min
Jul 10, 5:53 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TBW	Charlotte, Lee	67 min
Jul 10, 6:01 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		89 min
Jul 10, 6:22 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		53 min
Jul 10, 6:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Levy	49 min
Jul 10, 6:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	DeSoto	41 min
Jul 10, 7:09 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TBW	Levy	96 min
Jul 10, 7:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Hardee	46 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Florida, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.