Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AND HAS ACTED TO
BREAK DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEA-BOARD. THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT RELIEF TO SOME
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/FL PENINSULA. THE MAIN SUPPRESSION FROM
THIS RIDGE HOWEVER IS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...AND THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING IS SHOWING A MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION. THE PW VALUE OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS
APPROACHING 1.90"...WHICH IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES ARE IN THE 126-129K RANGE...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT AT NORMAL
LEVELS FOR JULY...AND CERTAINLY NOT HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE COLUMNS.
IF THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN OUR PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING OUR GRADIENT
LIGHT AND OUR FLOW DOMINATED BY NOCTURNAL/MORNING LAND BREEZES AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING - WEDNESDAY)...
THE SEA BREEZE IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS HAS
BEGUN INITIATING SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. LOOKS LIKE
A FAIRLY TYPICAL COVERAGE WITH 30-40% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AROUND 50% WILL BE FOUND DOWNS TOWARD PUNTA
GORDA/FT MYERS...WHERE THE MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP FOCUS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA-BREEZE FOCUS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAWN...EXPECTING THE DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO BE
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET UP DECENT COVERAGE OF
NOCTURNAL/MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN AT THE BEACHES...AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE CONVECTION PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS...AND OVER THE LANDMASS DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGERS. CURRENT POP GRIDS
ADVERTISE 50-60% POPS NORTH AND 60-65% POPS SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OVERALL THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER
PERIODIC STORMS. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES/CLOUD DEBRIS/AND LESS
EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE SE U.S. AND EASTERN GULF FROM
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TUTT LIKE FEATURE TRACKS
WESTWARD OVER CUBA AND THEN INTO THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH END SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT DOWN TURN IN POPS BUT STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GETTING A EARLY START NEAR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KPIE AND KTPA. BOTH TERMINALS WILL BE IN TH VICINITY OF
STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER FROM SARASOTA TO FT. MYERS...STORMS WILL BE
INITIATING IN THE VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REFORM NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH KSRQ AND KPIE BECOME MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CELL. ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. DESPITE THE TIGHTER GRADIENT...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENHANCED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  76  90 /  30  50  30  60
FMY  74  90  74  92 /  30  60  30  60
GIF  74  93  74  93 /  30  50  30  50
SRQ  75  91  75  90 /  30  50  30  60
BKV  72  92  72  93 /  30  50  30  60
SPG  79  91  78  90 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AVIATION...CARLISLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-092100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
501 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTH...FROM HERNANDO COUNTY
NORTHWARD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTH...IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

09/RKR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
239 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

FLZ043-048-049-091930-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
239 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
SUMTER...EASTERN HERNANDO AND NORTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTIES FOR A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CENTER HILL TO SAINT LEO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BUSHNELL TO
DADE CITY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WILL AFFECT TARRYTOWN...
LACOOCHEE...DADE CITY NORTH AND DADE CITY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND
A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR TO YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2867 8230 2866 8227 2874 8223 2877 8218
      2878 8219 2879 8217 2884 8218 2873 8195
      2864 8195 2824 8219 2837 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 117DEG 6KT 2867 8205 2836 8226