Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN SHOULD WIND DOWN
THEREAFTER WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. DURING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT)
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 NORTH
AND LOWER TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE U/L
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
THROUGH SUNDAY TOWARD THE ROCKIES AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND
SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WITH A WEAK U/L RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA THURSDAY WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF A FEW PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
WHICH WILL SHIFT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH 04/12Z. SCT TSRA WILL FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SW FL AND MAY IMPACT
LAL... PGD...FMY...AND RSW. WILL INCLUDE VCTS/CB FOR THOSE SITES.
LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOME WESTERLY 6-9KT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A BROAD SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD WITH LIGHT AND
MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS OVER NIGHT AND INTO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH...WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  76  92 /  20  30  10  30
FMY  75  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  40
GIF  75  95  76  95 /  30  30  20  40
SRQ  73  91  74  91 /  20  30  10  30
BKV  69  93  68  93 /  20  20  10  20
SPG  78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
AVIATION...09/RUDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-032100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAIN
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE RISK OF A PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY

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