Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON - ALOFT THERE WAS A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
REACHING TO THE FL PANHANDLE...AND RIDGING FROM CUBA TO THE VA/NC
COAST. AT THE SURFACE -  AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS
MS/AL/GA AND NE FL COASTAL WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 35 NORTH LATITUDE RIDGED SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
THE GULF COAST UPPER TROUGH LIFTS UP NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SE U.S.
AND THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE MON AND THEN
BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SAG SOUTH TUE...
ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE IN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE MON AND
THEN START TO FLATTEN TUE. THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURE FOR THE
REGION WILL BE THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH DROP DOWN TO AROUND
30 NORTH LATITUDE FOR MON AND TUE AS IT RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF.

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES MOIST...WITH PWAT VALUES IN 1.5-1.9 INCH
RANGE...AND WARM...WITH THE HIGHS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. THE LOWS WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. A PREVAILING
EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. THESE PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE INLAND AND ALSO IN THE NORTH WHICH CAN EXPECT DEEPER
MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - )...
LONG TERM WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
PENETRATING INLAND...DRIVING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY. OVERALL UPPER LVL PATTERN OVER THE REGION SEEMS TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL...ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FL
FROM THE ATL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO IN PLACE...POPS IN GENERAL REMAIN IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS WEAK
TROUGHINESS SEEMS TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HELPING TO KEEP SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER NORTHERN FL.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM AND CLOSE TO NORMALS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOWER
TO MID 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL SITES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
HAS DEVELOPED AT 3-5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH THROUGH
TERMINALS IN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF AND SHIFT WINDS TO SW.
WITH SEA BREEZE ALREADY THROUGH OR NEARLY THROUGH SRQ-PIE...WILL NOT
MENTION VCTS THERE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION AT OTHER SITES WITH
FARTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS HAVING MOST COVERAGE OF TSRA. AFTER 02Z
MON WILL SEE RETURN TO VFR AND LIGHT EAST WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND RESIDES IN
PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH PREVAILING EAST AND SE WINDS THAT
SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE TO
THE EAST OF SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SW OR WEST
WINDS. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  75  91 /  20  30  20  20
FMY  76  92  73  92 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  75  93  72  92 /  30  30  10  20
SRQ  75  91  73  89 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  72  94  70  91 /  20  30  20  30
SPG  79  92  77  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...22/REYNES
AVIATION...35/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
452 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-111000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
452 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

JELSEMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
649 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FLZ051-052-102330-
POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-
649 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL
HILLSBOROUGH AND WEST CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF WILLOW OAK...OR 6 MILES
EAST OF FISH HAWK...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH WILL AFFECT WINSTON...PLANT
CITY...PLANT CITY AIRPORT AND LAKELAND LINDER AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 19 AND 28.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND
A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2811 8218 2805 8193 2783 8206 2783 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 200DEG 5KT 2789 8212

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