Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1133 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

.UPDATE...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET IS
STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE POTENT CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED HELICITY VALUES
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH 0-1 KM VALUES NOW
BETWEEN 300 AND 400 M2/S2. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WILL
ISSUE A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL FOR MOST LOCALES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012/

..SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT...

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
OF THE REGION WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES WILL
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST APPROACHING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM WITH A DRY
SLOT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS
EVENING PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE DIMINISHED...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT TIMING HAS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST PEA SIZE HAIL...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING LARGER HAIL. CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED.

AVIATION...
ROUND ONE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW EAST OF THE TERMINALS
WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STILL SEEING SOME CIG RESTRICTION INLAND AROUND KLAL...BUT THESE
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. WATCHING FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ROUND OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AND
WILL SHOW TEMPOS FOR THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS AFTER 02Z FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE AROUND IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WITH POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR CIG/VIS WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE
CELLS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT...HOWEVER WINDS WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WNW AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30+ KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  60  75 /  80  30  10   5
FMY  69  83  63  79 /  75  30  10   5
GIF  67  83  58  76 /  75  40  10   5
SRQ  69  80  62  75 /  80  30  10   5
BKV  64  81  52  75 /  80  30  10   5
SPG  70  79  65  74 /  80  30  10   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...21/JELSEMA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
602 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
602 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
DAYTIME HEATING ADDS TO THE INSTABILITY AND THEN THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FROM TARPON SPRINGS
SOUTH AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE
CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER
WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING BRIEFLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET.
FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. IN
ADDITION...HIGH SURF MAY OCCUR WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION OR
POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1204 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

FLZ042-043-048>051-055-060-220500-
SUMTER-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
1204 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
CITRUS...HERNANDO...NORTHWESTERN MANATEE...NORTHWESTERN
SARASOTA...PASCO...PINELLAS...WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND SUMTER
COUNTIES FOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
VALID UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO REDINGTON SHORES TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRADENTON
BEACH...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SEMINOLE TO 56
MILES WEST OF SARASOTA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH WILL AFFECT NEW PORT
RICHEY...MOON LAKE ESTATES...JASMINE ESTATES AND HOLIDAY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2819 8283 2819 8282 2854 8267 2897 8273
      2892 8195 2735 8256 2743 8264 2743 8265
      2730 8258 2754 8275 2783 8241 2792 8248
      2783 8254 2800 8265 2799 8267 2781 8258
      2757 8277 2758 8278 2786 8286 2821 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 266DEG 24KT 2852 8240 2786 8279
          2716 8336

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1222 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

FLZ062-065-220500-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1222 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
CHARLOTTE AND WESTERN LEE COUNTIES FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR SANIBEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH
WILL AFFECT SANIBEL...CAPE CORAL...WHISKEY CREEK AND PAGE PARK-PINE
MAN.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2649 8217 2650 8217 2648 8212 2658 8213
      2659 8216 2671 8215 2669 8209 2687 8207
      2690 8211 2694 8208 2696 8212 2694 8208
      2695 8206 2690 8160 2645 8196 2647 8201
      2645 8200 2641 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 223DEG 29KT 2650 8203

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1253 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

FLZ055-060>062-065-220600-
DE SOTO-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
1253 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLOTTE...
SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE...SOUTHEASTERN SARASOTA...SOUTHWESTERN DESOTO
AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

AT 1246 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES
WEST OF MANASOTA KEY TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOCA GRANDE TO 29 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPTIVA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ENGLEWOOD TO 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANIBEL TO 31 MILES
WEST OF SANIBEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH WILL AFFECT BOCA
GRANDE...ENGLEWOOD...VENICE GARDENS AND WARM MINERAL SPRINGS.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2648 8220 2662 8224 2667 8227 2677 8227
      2682 8229 2690 8236 2706 8245 2727 8211
      2690 8171 2650 8199 2643 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0453Z 244DEG 34KT 2691 8249 2667 8226
          2631 8250

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
133 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

FLZ043-051-052-055>057-060-061-220630-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-SUMTER-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
133 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MANATEE...NORTHERN SARASOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER...POLK...NORTHWESTERN
HIGHLANDS...HARDEE AND NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
THE GREEN SWAMP TO GIBSONIA TO 7 MILES NORTH OF FORT LONESOME TO
SIESTA KEY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MASCOTTE TO LAKELAND TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRANDON TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SARASOTA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT SIESTA
KEY...SARASOTA...THE GREEN SWAMP AND WINSTON...UNTIL 230 AM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2779 8141 2717 8195 2718 8251 2732 8260
      2780 8219 2811 8202 2858 8203 2858 8195
      2836 8195 2835 8166 2827 8165 2825 8154
      2815 8152 2815 8146 2809 8144 2808 8134
      2802 8138 2804 8145 2794 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 270DEG 28KT 2849 8194 2811 8192
          2780 8209 2725 8256