Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2012

River Flood Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

August 27, 2012Hillsborough County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this river flood warning at Aug 27, 2012, 9:14 PM EDT for Hillsborough County, Florida. It took effect at Aug 27, 2012, 11:26 PM EDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 27, 2012, 9:14 PM EDT (01:14 UTC)
In effect from: Aug 27, 2012, 11:26 PM EDT
Expired: Aug 31, 2012, 3:20 AM EDT
In force: 3 days
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Flood severity: Minor

County Hillsborough County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Alafia River at Lithia Pinecrest Road at Lithia (LITF1). The gauge peaked at 14.41 ft at Aug 29, 2012, 4:00 PM EDT.

Action stage: 11 ft
Minor stage: 13 ft
Moderate stage: 16 ft
Major stage: 19 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02301500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

915 
WGUS42 KTBW 280114
FLWTBW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
914 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

 ...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...

 .SEASONAL SUMMER RAINS COMBINED WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC BROUGHT THE
RIVER LEVEL PAST THEIR FLOOD STAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC057-281414-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0036.120828T0326Z-120830T1800Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.120828T0326Z.120828T1800Z.120830T1200Z.NO/
914 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA FL HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 08PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS...12.7 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 
  13.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE 
  ROAD 640 ARE COMPLETELY COVERED BY WATER.  ONE HOME BEGINS TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN 
  WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.6 FEET ON AUG 9 
  1957.

$$

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  12.7  MON 08 PM  13.5   13.0   12.5   12.0    MSG

6 follow-up statements

082 
WGUS82 KTBW 281358
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
958 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT
WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...AND
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...

.HEAVY RAIN...MOSTLY FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL
AREA RIVERS UP TO FLOOD LEVEL. WITH SATURATED GROUND...AND TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME RAIN CONTINUING...SOME OF THESE RIVERS COULD STAY AT
FLOOD LEVEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-290258-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120823T1815Z.120902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
958 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.3 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING THREATENS TWO HOMES ON STATE ROAD
54.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT THE RECREATION AREA ON
STATE ROAD 54.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.4
FEET ON OCT 2 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

CYPRESS CREEK
 WORTHINGTON   8   9.2  TUE 09 AM   9.6    9.9   10.1   10.2   10.3

$$

FLC057-290258-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120901T0000Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.120828T0225Z.120829T0000Z.120831T1800Z.NO/
958 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...ADDITIONAL RESIDENCES DOWNSTREAM OF STATE
ROAD 640 BRIDGE BEGIN FLOODING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN WAY DOWNSTREAM
OF STATE ROAD 640 ARE COMPLETELY COVERED BY WATER.  ONE HOME BEGINS
TO FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.4
FEET ON AUG 20 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  13.7  TUE 09 AM  14.1   13.4   13.1   12.6   12.2

$$

FLC057-290258-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-120902T0430Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.120828T1712Z.120830T0000Z.120901T2230Z.NO/
958 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT 09AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET.
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TO RISE TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.5 FEET...FLOODING OF SEVERAL HOUSES BEGINS NEAR 32ND
AND 33RD STREETS IN RUSKIN.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...THE CANOE RENTAL AREA FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.6
FEET ON SEP 28 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11  10.5  TUE 09 AM  13.2   13.6   12.9   11.6   10.2

$$

FLC081-290258-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-120829T2100Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.120827T2249Z.120828T0945Z.120829T1500Z.NO/
958 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW
LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM
FLOOD. AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.2
FEET ON SEP 10 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11  12.3  TUE 09 AM  11.3    9.9    8.5    6.9    6.3

$$

FLC115-290258-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.120826T0715Z.120829T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
958 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER
STATE PARK
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.7 FEET BY THIS EVENING
THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.5 FEET...MOST OF MYAKKA STATE PARK IS CLOSED.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...THE MAIN PARK ROAD FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...TRAILS, PICNIC AREAS, AND PARKING LOTS
FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.6 FEET
ON AUG 18 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

MYAKKA
 MYAKKA RIVE   7   7.6  TUE 09 AM   7.7    7.7    7.6    7.4    7.3

$$

982 
WGUS82 KTBW 290150
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT
WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...AND
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...

HEAVY RAIN...MOSTLY FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL
AREA RIVERS UP TO FLOOD LEVEL. WITH SATURATED GROUND...AND TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME RAIN CONTINUING...SOME OF THESE RIVERS COULD STAY AT
FLOOD LEVEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-291450-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120823T1815Z.120902T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.4 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING THREATENS TWO HOMES ON STATE ROAD 54.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

CYPRESS CREEK
 WORTHINGTON   8   9.3 TUE 09 PM   9.6    9.9   10.2   10.3   10.4

$$

FLC057-291450-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120831T1200Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.120828T0225Z.120829T0100Z.120831T0600Z.NO/
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. 
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...ADDITIONAL RESIDENCES DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640 
  BRIDGE BEGIN FLOODING.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  14.1 TUE 09 PM  13.9   13.2   12.9   12.4   12.0

$$

FLC057-291450-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-120901T1600Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.120828T1741Z.120830T0000Z.120901T1000Z.NO/
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...THE CANOE RENTAL AREA FLOODS.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11  11.6 TUE 09 PM  13.0   13.4   12.2   10.9    9.9

$$

FLC081-291048-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-120829T1048Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.120827T2249Z.120828T0945Z.120829T0448Z.NO/
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...A PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.  
  AND THE AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11  11.3 TUE 09 PM  10.2    8.6    8.0    6.8    6.2

$$

FLC115-291450-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.120826T0715Z.120829T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...THE MAIN PARK ROAD FLOODS.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

MYAKKA
 MYAKKA RIVE   7   7.7 TUE 09 PM   7.7    7.7    7.5    7.4    7.3

$$

945 
WGUS82 KTBW 291352
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
952 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE CYPRESS CREEK AT
WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER
STATE PARK...

.HEAVY RAIN...MOSTLY FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL
AREA RIVERS UP TO FLOOD STAGE. WITH USUAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERNS
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ADDITIONAL RAINS MAY KEEP SOME
OF THESE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-300252-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120823T1815Z.120901T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON
GARDENS
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.4 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING
THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING THREATENS TWO HOMES ON STATE ROAD
54.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT THE RECREATION AREA ON
STATE ROAD 54.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.4
FEET ON OCT 2 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

CYPRESS CREEK
 WORTHINGTON   8   9.5  WED 08 AM   9.8   10.2   10.4   10.2    9.9

$$

FLC057-300251-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120901T1800Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.120828T0225Z.120830T0000Z.120901T1200Z.NO/
952 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...ADDITIONAL RESIDENCES DOWNSTREAM OF STATE
ROAD 640 BRIDGE BEGIN FLOODING
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN WAY DOWNSTREAM
OF STATE ROAD 640 ARE COMPLETELY COVERED BY WATER.  ONE HOME BEGINS
TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT RIVER DRIVE AND
SQUIRREL RUN WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.4
FEET ON AUG 20 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  14.4  WED 08 AM  14.4   13.6   13.0   12.2   11.8

$$

FLC057-300251-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-120830T1912Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.120828T1741Z.120829T1145Z.120830T1312Z.NO/
952 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW
LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.6
FEET ON AUG 23 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11  11.9  WED 08 AM  11.1    9.4    8.5    7.8    7.3

$$

FLC115-300251-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.120826T0715Z.120829T1215Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER
STATE PARK
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 8AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 7.2 FEET BY MONDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 8.5 FEET...MOST OF MYAKKA STATE PARK IS CLOSED.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...THE MAIN PARK ROAD FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...TRAILS, PICNIC AREAS, AND PARKING LOTS
FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.6 FEET
ON AUG 18 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

MYAKKA
 MYAKKA RIVE   7   7.8  WED 08 AM   7.8    7.7    7.5    7.4    7.2

$$

832 
WGUS82 KTBW 300146
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
945 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

 A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE CYPRESS CREEK AT
WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER
STATE PARK...

 ...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE LED TO FLOODING AT
SEVERAL RIVERS. ADDITIONALY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. ...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-301445-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120823T1815Z.120901T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
945 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.0 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN 
  FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING THREATENS TWO HOMES ON STATE ROAD 54.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.4 FEET ON OCT 2 
  2004.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

CYPRESS CREEK
 WORTHINGTON   8   9.6 WED 09 PM   9.7    9.9   10.0   10.0    9.9

$$

FLC057-301445-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120901T0000Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.120828T0225Z.120829T2000Z.120831T1800Z.NO/
945 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012
.
...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...ADDITIONAL RESIDENCES DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640 
  BRIDGE BEGIN FLOODING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.4 FEET ON AUG 20 
  2004.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  14.3 WED 09 PM  13.8   13.1   12.4   11.9   11.4

$$

FLC057-301445-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-120831T0200Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.120828T1741Z.120829T1145Z.120830T2000Z.NO/
945 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
FOR
  THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. 
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEE.T 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.6 FEET ON AUG 23 
  2004.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11  11.5 WED 09 PM  11.3   10.0    8.7    7.9    7.4

$$

FLC115-301445-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.120826T0715Z.120830T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
945 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 09PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...THE MAIN PARK ROAD FLOODS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.6 FEET ON AUG 18 
  2004.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

MYAKKA
 MYAKKA RIVE   7   7.9 WED 09 PM   7.9    7.7    7.5    7.3    7.2

$$

748 
WGUS82 KTBW 301446
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
1046 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK 
AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA AND THE MYAKKA 
RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...

...THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS FLOOD WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...

.HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOODING TO 
CONTINUE ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-310346-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120823T1815Z.120901T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1046 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET 
* THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.0 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY 
  MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING THREATENS TWO HOMES ON STATE ROAD 54
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT THE RECREATION AREA ON STATE ROAD 
  54
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.4 FEET ON OCT 2 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

CYPRESS CREEK
 WORTHINGTON   8   9.7  THU 10 AM   9.9    9.9   10.0    9.9    9.7

$$

FLC057-310346-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120901T0300Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.120828T0225Z.120829T2000Z.120831T2100Z.NO/
1046 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING 
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET 
* THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE 
  ROAD 640 ARE COMPLETELY COVERED BY WATER.  ONE HOME BEGINS TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN 
  WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.4 FEET ON AUG 20 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  13.8  THU 10 AM  13.3   12.5   11.8   11.4   10.9

$$

FLC115-310346-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.120826T0715Z.120830T1415Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1046 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...THE MAIN PARK ROAD FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...TRAILS, PICNIC AREAS, AND PARKING LOTS FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.9 FEET ON SEP 11 
  2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

MYAKKA
 MYAKKA RIVE   7   7.9  THU 10 AM   7.8    7.6    7.4    7.2    7.0

$$

FLC057-301516-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-120831T0200Z/
/WIMF1.1.ER.120828T1741Z.120829T1145Z.120830T0945Z.NO/
1046 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* UNTIL THIS EVENING 
* AT 10AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET 
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11  10.8  THU 10 AM   9.7    8.5    7.8    7.4    7.0

$$

725 
WGUS82 KTBW 310144
FLSTBW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 
944 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

.A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT 
 WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...AND THE 
 MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE PARK.

...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE LED TO INCREASED WATER 
    LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-311444-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120823T1815Z.120902T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10 FEET BY SATURDAY 
  EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...FLOODING THREATENS TWO HOMES ON 
  STATE ROAD 54
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT THE RECREATION 
  AREA ON STATE ROAD 54
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST 
  OF 11.4 FEET ON OCT 2 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

CYPRESS CREEK
 WORTHINGTON   8   9.8  THU 09 PM   9.9   10.0    9.9    9.7    MSG

$$

FLC057-310720-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120831T0720Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.120828T0225Z.120829T2000Z.120831T0120Z.NO/
944 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING 
   CONTINUES FOR THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
* AT 9PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN WAY 
  DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640 ARE COMPLETELY COVERED BY WATER.
  ONE HOME BEGINS TO FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT RIVER DRIVE AND 
  SQUIRREL RUN WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 
  14.9 FEET ON AUG 16 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  13.0  THU 09 PM  11.7   11.2   10.7   10.2    MSG

$$

FLC115-311444-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.120826T0715Z.120831T0115Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
944 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE 
* AT 9PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET 
* THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 8.5 FEET...MOST OF MYAKKA STATE PARK IS CLOSED
* IMPACT...AT 8 FEET...THE MAIN PARK ROAD FLOODS
* IMPACT...AT 7 FEET...TRAILS, PICNIC AREAS, AND PARKING LOTS 
  FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 9.9 
  FEET ON SEP 11 2004.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE

MYAKKA
 MYAKKA RIVE   7   8.0  THU 09 PM   7.6    7.4    7.2    7.1    MSG

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Aug 27, 5:15 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 27, 5:15 PM EDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
515 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
21Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW FEATURE OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EASTERN CIRCULATION OF ISAAC MOVING OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS TROPICAL CONNECTION WE HAVE SEEN
SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN AS A WHOLE WITH A
DROP IN PW FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM 2.6" DOWN TO 1.8". MUCH OF
THIS DRYING HAS OCCURRED ABOVE 500MB AND THE MOIST COLUMN BELOW THIS
LEVEL IS STILL QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS REALLY TIGHTENED ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS PARTLY A RESULT OF THE
DEEPENING OCCURRING WITHIN TROPICAL STORMS ISAAC (CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS DOWN AROUND 981MB). IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG
THE FL EAST COAST TODAY HAS SET UP A COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED
MESO-HIGH FEATURE TO OUR WEST. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME RATHER GUSTY
BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES AND SHOULD CONTINUE SO FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.

WE DID NOT SEE THE DOMINANT BANDING OF CONVECTION SEEN OVER TOWARD
THE EAST COAST TODAY...BUT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CERTAINLY
RAISED THE INSTABILITY AND RESULTED IN SCT-NMRS SHALLOW
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CELLS AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD SLOWLY SEE A
RAMP DOWN IN THE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAND MASS...AND
ALSO A SLOW DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SOME GENERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME ACTIVITY ROTATING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AFTER THE LATER EVENING
HOURS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL LAND ZONES AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE OUR HEIGHTS...HOWEVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SE FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE AIRMASS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE OVERALL
CONNECTION TO THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC WILL BE DIMINISHING FOR OUR
AREA...BUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST...AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY RANGE. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A DAY BUT A CONTINUATION OF THE FAST
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH CONVECTIVE CELLS IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION
OF THE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SWELL PROPAGATING BACK TO THE
COAST FROM ISAAC WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD ON
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND APPROACHING THE NW CARRIBEAN/S FL PENINSULA. SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO JUST HAVE MADE LANDFALL AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
AND THEN MEANDER NORTHWARD OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES IN ACROSS FL...IN THE WAKE OF
ISAAC...EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND GETS REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY WEEKS END AND AND THEN
SHIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CAN
GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH POPS WILL TEND DOWN BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS VISIBILITIES IN RAIN BANDS. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE. ISAAC IS A LARGE STORM AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS LARGE
WAVES AND SWELLS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  88  78  89 /  60  60  40  60
FMY  78  89  77  90 /  60  60  40  60
GIF  77  90  75  91 /  50  70  30  60
SRQ  80  88  78  89 /  60  60  40  60
BKV  78  90  75  90 /  60  60  40  60
SPG  81  88  80  89 /  60  60  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
     SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
     MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
     20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
LONG TERM...RUDE

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 27, 11:49 AM EDT, 9 hours 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1149 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-280400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
1149 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY STRONGER WIND
GUSTS.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS WILL MAKE FOR
ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
WATER LEVELS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY MINOR CONCERNS EXIST WITH TIDES OF THIS
LEVEL.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A HIGH TO EXTREME RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
BEACHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LEE COUNTY. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE
THREATENING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TAMPA BAY THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SLOW RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION AND PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE A THREAT ON TUESDAY
WITH THE REGION STILL WITHIN THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND ISAAC.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A HIGH TO EXTREME RIP CURRENT RISK WILL EXIST FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
BEACHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LEE COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

GMZ850-853-856-870-873-876-280400-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1149 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WILL
MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS ON GULF WATERS WILL BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE UP TO 15
FEET...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE. BAY AND INLAND WATERS WILL BE
ROUGH. IN ADDITION RAIN BANDS FROM ISAAC WILL BRING THE RISK OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

14-MROCZKA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 27, 3:55 PM EDT, 5 hours 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLZ050-051-055-272045-
HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-MANATEE-
355 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL
PINELLAS...NORTHEASTERN MANATEE AND WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES FOR
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR DUETTE...OR 22 MILES WEST OF
WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH WILL AFFECT DUETTE...LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER STATE PARK...SUN CITY CENTER AND WIMAUMA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 240 AND 256.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 39 AND 52.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2797 8263 2809 8244 2756 8206 2741 8220
      2775 8250 2781 8245 2782 8241 2783 8244
      2789 8241 2792 8248 2782 8246 2783 8254
      2788 8261 2789 8261 2787 8255 2796 8256
      2796 8261 2790 8263 2791 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 145DEG 37KT 2756 8219

Local storm report, Aug 27, 5:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
525 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     WATER SPOUT      4 ESE TAMPA             27.94N 82.43W
08/27/2012                   GMZ830             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF WATERSPOUT OVER EAST BAY NEAR CAUSEWAY BOULEVARD

&&

JILLSON

Special weather statement, Aug 27, 7:21 PM EDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
721 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

FLZ048-049-051-280015-
HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-
721 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HERNANDO...
NORTH CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO AND SOUTHWESTERN CITRUS COUNTIES
FOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

AT 721 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAND
O LAKES TO VALRICO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LUTZ TO
BRANDON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT LAND O
LAKES...LUTZ...NEW TAMPA AND LETTUCE LAKE PARK.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2870 8267 2869 8242 2866 8241 2867 8228
      2865 8227 2857 8221 2857 8215 2853 8210
      2853 8206 2852 8205 2787 8224 2816 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 177DEG 27KT 2823 8242 2798 8224

Local storm report, Aug 27, 8:14 PM EDT, 1 hour before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
814 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SSW WESLEY CHAPEL     28.19N 82.35W
08/27/2012                   PASCO              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE SHOPS AT
            WIREGRASS AT 755 PM.

&&

CARLISLE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 28, 10:29 AM EDT	Small Craft Advisory	TBW		11 hr
Aug 28, 2:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Polk	47 min
Aug 28, 6:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TBW	Alachua	51 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2012 Every river flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.