Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
945 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.UPDATE...AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING...BRIGHT SUNSHINE HAS
GONE TO WORK AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
THEIR LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR. IT WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON...BUT
THE 12Z TBW SOUNDING STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR WHICH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COMFORTABLE DESPITE BEING IN THE 80S.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC AND WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...WE
WILL LIKELY MIX THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE INVERSION WHICH HAS
FALLEN TO AROUND 5800 FEET. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUDS AND MAY ACTUALLY RESULT IN CLOUDS THINNING OR DISSIPATING
BEFORE EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC BUT REPRESENTS A GOOD
BLEND.

NO TEXT UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW-SCT CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIKELY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
ENE 8-12KTS...WITH KTPA...KPIE...AND KSRQ LIKELY COMING AROUND TO
A MORE W-WNW DIRECTION AFTER 19Z WITH DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZES. THE
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT MUCH FURTHER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEABREEZE. WINDS SETTLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF AND PATCHY MVFR VIS AROUND KLAL TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT
SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...THE EVENING SURGE HAS PASSED THE OFFSHORE BUOYS AND
WINDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SINKING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY...IT IS UNLIKELY WE WILL
SEE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE TONIGHT. THE 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS IN THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SOON DROP TO AROUND 3 FEET...AND MOST LIKELY
THERE ARE NO 5 FOOTERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE COAST
ANYWAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TO DECREASE
WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND REMOVE ALL EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON
AVIATION...MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
437 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-082045-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
437 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE CRITICAL HUMIDITY
VALUES AROUND 3 TO PERHAPS 4 HOURS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND DRY FUELS...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILD FIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

09/RKR