Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
U/L TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
TODAY WITH AN U/L RIDGE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPRESS THE
U/L RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND FLORIDA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FLORIDA. THEN
DURING SATURDAY THE MODELS ARE BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WASHING OUT OVER NORTH
FLORIDA FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN
THE U.S. EAST COAST INTO FLORIDA AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST AND MOVES OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND...BUT EITHER WAY IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET TODAY AND
TUESDAY. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL CREATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
LESS THAN 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP OVER LEE COUNTY WHERE
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  63  84  64 /   0   0  10   5
FMY  86  62  86  62 /   0   0  20   5
GIF  84  59  84  61 /   0   0  10   5
SRQ  82  60  83  62 /   0   0  10   5
BKV  84  52  86  57 /   0   0  10   5
SPG  81  66  83  67 /   0   0  10   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LEE.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262030-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
430 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY AIR OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS LEE COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY