High Surf Advisory 9, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

211 
WHUS42 KTBW 270648
CFWTBW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.LINGERING SWELL ARRIVING AT THE COAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
SUNCOAST BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURF HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECLINE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.

FLZ050-051-055-060-062-065-280000-
/O.EXT.KTBW.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-121228T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121227T1200Z/
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
148 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* SURF...4 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE SUNCOAST BEACHES.

* HAZARDS...HIGH SURF AND MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

* TIMING...THE HIGH SURF WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
  MORNING. THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
  LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.

* IMPACTS...THOSE PLANNING BEACH ACTIVITIES SHOULD USE CAUTION
  WHEN VENTURING INTO THE WATER AND BE AWARE OF THE HIGH SURF AND
  THE RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS SUCH AS RIP
CURRENTS...LONGSHORE CURRENTS...SNEAKER WAVES AND OTHER HAZARDS
ARE POSSIBLE. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER.

PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WATER ACTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.  THIS INCLUDES ROUGH SURF...LARGE
BREAKING WAVES...RIP CURRENTS...AND STRONG UNDERTOW.

BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO HEED LIFEGUARD WARNINGS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA

897 
WHUS42 KTBW 271213
CFWTBW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
713 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON... 

.LINGERING SWELL ARRIVING AT THE COAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
SUNCOAST BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

FLZ050-051-055-060-062-065-280000-
/O.EXP.KTBW.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121227T1200Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.BH.S.0018.000000T0000Z-121228T0000Z/
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
713 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* HAZARDS...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

* TIMING...THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE
  COUNTY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS SUCH AS RIP
CURRENTS...LONGSHORE CURRENTS...SNEAKER WAVES AND OTHER
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE
WATER. 

PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
ON THE NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH FREEZING IN ISOLATED NORMALLY
COLDER POCKETS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ACROSS SARASOTA...MANATEE...HARDEE AND POLK COUNTIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE STRONG AND GUSTY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE LINE WITH GUSTS OF 30-40MPH POSSIBLE STILL. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU
POSSIBLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 30S WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
CENTRAL ZONES WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. COLD AIR WILL TO ADVECT IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED FREEZING POCKETS AGAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT
EAST AND TURN WINDS TO THE E/SE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE
MODERATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE TN VALLEY/SE STATES EARLY SATURDAY. GLOBAL
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS ENERGY
AND RESULTING ORGANIZATION OF SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ITS PARENT ENERGY AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. OVERALL
THE RAIN CHANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SIMILAR
BETWEEN MODELS...BUT THE ECMWF AND ITS MORE AGGRESSIVE MASS FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STRONGER STORMS. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER THE COMING DAYS.
FOR NOW...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA SHOULD SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN QUICKLY APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY FOR
SATURDAY WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR NORTH.

AS IT LOOKS NOW...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PROTECT OUR FORECAST AREA FROM ANY INCLEMENT WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST. LATEST INDICATION FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WHOSE PARENT ENERGY BECOMES
CUT-OFF NEAR THE BAJA AND DOES NOT COME EAST BEFORE THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST WILL SHOW THIS TREND WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NARROW LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS PGD...RSW AND FMY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECTING THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT FROM THE NW BUT WILL REDUCE TO 5-10 KT EARLY
TOMORROW. A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE SHOWING S/SW WINDS 15-20KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
W/NW WINDS AROUND 25KTS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE STATE. THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 4AM AND
SHOULD THEN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE WATERS BEHIND IT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW HOURS OF
RHS BELOW 35 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AND ERC VALUES WILL BE
LESS THAN 30...SO NO WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS SHOULD BE NECESSARY
FOR THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING...BUT A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM
POLK COUNTY NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT
AND ERC VALUES LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  63  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  49  68  47  76 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  48  64  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  37  62  32  70 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  51  62  51  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
     SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM...MROCZKA
AVIATION...20/BARRON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
426 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-270000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
426 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO
DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY...HOWEVER ANY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS TODAY WOULD
BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

MROCZKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
937 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

FLZ039-261445-
LEVY-
937 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR WILLISTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR NEAR WILLISTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...WILL AFFECT WILLISTON AND WILLISTON MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...UNTIL 945 AM EST.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 2948 8240 2923 8240 2921 8243 2921 8245
      2939 8260 2940 8259 2949 8247 2949 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 236DEG 81KT 2940 8240

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1141 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 E LARGO               27.91N 82.69W
12/26/2012  M40 MPH          PINELLAS           FL   ASOS

            THE ASOS AT KPIE ST.PETE/CLEARWATER MEASURED A 35 KNOT
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT 1133 AM.

&&

FLEMING