Frost Advisory 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

306 
WWUS72 KTBW 131305
NPWTBW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
805 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...HARD FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 AM...
...THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 800 AM...

.COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY AND STARTS A WARMING TREND.

FLZ051-052-055>057-060>062-131415-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FZ.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120213T1300Z/
HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
CHARLOTTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...
WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...
NORTH PORT...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...
PUNTA GORDA
805 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. 

$$

FLZ050-131415-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120213T1300Z/
PINELLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG
805 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING...PRECLUDING ANY FROST FORMATION.

$$

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-131415-
/O.CON.KTBW.HZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120213T1400Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS
805 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...BELOW FREEZING FOR 4 TO 8 HOURS WITH LOWS AROUND 
  20 DEGREES. 

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES THIS COLD CAN KILL VEGETATION THAT IS 
  NOT PROPERLY PROTECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
137 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PATTERN ALOFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS...A TROUGH FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH TO AZ...RIDGING FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICAN
COASTAL WATERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A LOW OVER QUEBEC
THAT TROUGHS SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...A ROBUST SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER MO/AR SPRAWLS ACROSS
THE GULF AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...TO THE SE U.S. AND FL BY MON AND THEN
FLATTENS INTO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY TUE. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS IN ACROSS THE SE U.S. LATER TONIGHT AND MON BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT. THIS HIGH CONTINUES EAST TUE...BUT WITH A
RIDGE BACK WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FL...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS IN ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER.

THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES DRY AND BREEZY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE
BEGINING TO DROP. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 400 PM AND
EXPECT THAT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WE ARE LOOKING FOR ONE MORE COOL TO COLD NIGHT AS THE SURFACE SETS
UP JUST TO THE NORTH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY BUT EXPECT THAT
TO THIN OUT LATER. PASCO NORTH HAS A HARD FREEZE WATCH WHILE TO THE
SOUTH THERE IS A FREEZE WATCH...EXCEPT FOR PINELLAS AND LEE. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WATCHES TO WARNINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS. AS NOTED EARLIER WINDS ARE LIGHT...BELOW 10
MPH...AND WILL NOT REQUIRE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

THEN THE REST OF MON THROUGH TUE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THROUGH THE
EAST AND SE TO SOUTHERLY BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH MAY HELP SPREAD A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
RIDGING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE NATURE COAST. AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THURSDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING OVER NORTH
FLORIDA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN STREAM L/W TROUGH
WILL DIG ON FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. U/L SUPPORT WILL BE
LIFTING OUT SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON JUST HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND WILL LET THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST,,,BUT HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER FROM NE TO
SOUTHERLY BY FRI...WITH SPEEDS BELOW CAUTIONARY VALUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PINELLAS...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTIES WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT CITRUS...SUMTER AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THESE ARE
WORKING OUT NICELY.

MON WILL STILL BE DRY WITH EXTENDED DURATIONS OF LOW RH...EXCEPT IN
LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST (BUT MARGINAL) ERC VALUES. MON CAN BE
HANDLED WITH AN RFD. TUE WILL MOISTEN UP WITH NO CONCERNS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  53  33  63  51 /   0   0   0   5
FMY  59  38  68  52 /   0   0   0   5
GIF  53  31  64  48 /   0   0   0   5
SRQ  55  34  65  50 /   0   0   0   5
BKV  51  21  63  41 /   0   0   0   5
SPG  52  42  61  56 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
     PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-DE
     SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-POLK-SARASOTA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-LEE-
     PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
     20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
AVIATION...05/CARLISLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
556 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-121700-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
556 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WATCH IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. FOUR TO EIGHT HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HARD FREEZE WATCH AREA WITH LOWS AROUND 20...AN 2 TO 4
HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FREEZE AREA
WITH LOWS AROUND 30. RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY
COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS LATER TODAY. ALSO...BRING PETS INDOORS THIS
EVENING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS THE SUNCOAST
BEACHES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE
CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER
WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TODAY AND SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 9 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD POSTPONE
TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 15 MPH AND DRY SOILS WILL REQUIRE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR MOST COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PINELLAS SOUTH.
MODERATE SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
COMBINED WITH THE CRITICAL HUMIDITIES WILL ALLOW FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ELSEWHERE. WILDFIRES WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR.
MODERATE SOIL MOISTURE VALUES WILL AGAIN CAUSE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

COLSON