Freeze Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1256 PM EST WED JAN 4 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE PENINSULA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP WINDS
TO DIMINISH. DESPITE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SURFACE MOISTURE...THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL QUITE DRY AND THIS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY COLD...AND WILL GO
A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 32 DEGREES FOR UP TO 5 HOURS TONIGHT
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WILL UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
THE AREA IN ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT LEE AND PINELLAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL IN GENERAL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...SO THE FREEZES WILL BE
CONFINED TO MORE INLAND LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THE UPTICK IN
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MORE FROST FORMATION...AND SO HAVE
GONE WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR LEE COUNTY. PINELLAS WAS ON THE
BORDERLINE...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW COVERAGE OF
FROST...ELECTED TO LEAVE IT OUT.

AFTER TONIGHT...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS BY FRIDAY. NO
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THROUGH THE WEEKEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
LIFTS UP ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS IT
DAMPENS OUT. THIS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD SOME DEEP LAYER
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH A SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKLY RIDGE BACK WEST TO FL. ON MON A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES- SW DESERT REGIONS AND CONTINUES TO THE EAST
SEABOARD TUE...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE STATE. A
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF REGION
LATE TUE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY NEAR NORMAL BUT THAT SLOWLY WARM BEFORE BEGINNING TO
COOL SLIGHTLY LATE TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED DRY AIR THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO PERSIST. ERC VALUES REMAIN A BIT TOO LOW FOR WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO ALLEVIATE CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  39  68  50  70 /   0   0   0   5
FMY  38  68  46  73 /   0   0   0   5
GIF  34  68  45  70 /   0   0   0   5
SRQ  36  65  47  70 /   0   0   0   5
BKV  27  67  40  71 /   0   0   0   5
SPG  47  64  54  70 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LEE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
AVIATION..BARRON
LONG TERM...RUDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
445 AM EST WED JAN 4 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-042145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
445 AM EST WED JAN 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LIKELY
OVER THE NATURE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING AROUND MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST TO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURATIONS BELOW FREEZING WILL RUN FROM
7 TO 11 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE COUNTY DUE TO LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY