Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2012

.NEAR TERM [Until 6 AM Saturday Morning]...

Widespread thunderstorm activity will wane a little bit this
evening with the loss of solar heating. However, with the
lingering instability and forcing from the upper level disturbance
it is likely that scattered to isolated activity will continue
well into the overnight hours. A surface cold front will continue to
sag south and provide the focus for increased activity in the
pre-dawn hours. Looks to be a wet start to the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM [6 AM Saturday Morning Through Sunday]...

A cold front to the north of the area will sag south a bit more
overnight tonight. This will provide the focus for widespread thunderstorm
activity in the early morning, especially in the western half of
the CWA. Convection Allowing Model (CAM) guidance seems to
indicate that this activity will slide to the east and south with
the front through the morning hours before dissipating some by
late morning. The primary question will be whether convection
will fire up again like to today. This will be the tricky part of
the forecast as convection tends to be very chaotic. However, with
the southward movement of the front the convection may be more
focused over central and eastern parts of the CWA tomorrow. For
this forecast package PoPs have been increased to likely over most
of the forecast area for tonight and tomorrow. The front pushes
south tomorrow night and conditions improve for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]...

The overall mid/upper level pattern continues to show troughing
over the eastern third of the CONUS. However, the trough is
forecast to be less amplified than what we've seen this past week.
We may even see a brief period of nearly zonal flow late Wednesday
into Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will ridge westward
across the Gulf from the Atlantic with the axis staying south of
the local area. Time height cross sections show the mid level dry
air that filtered in on Sunday remaining over the region through
Tuesday before deep layer moisture returns once again. The lower
levels will remain moist with the resulting west to southwest
flow. This pattern will favor near to slightly below seasonal PoPs
Monday and Tuesday and near to above seasonal PoPs for the rest of
the work week. Max temps will be near to above average for the
entire extended period.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 19Z Friday]...

Numerous thunderstorms will continue to affect the area this
afternoon into this evening. Activity will have a brief pause in
the overnight hours before another round of thunderstorms are
expected to affect the area early just before dawn. The exact
timing and intensity of these storms are difficult to predict and
uncertain at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over coastal
waters tonight and tomorrow...especially near the coastline. Winds
will be out of the SW around 10 knots and seas will generally be 2
to 3 feet with some possible 4 foot seas in the offshore waters
west of Panama City. These seas are mainly left over swell from
Ernesto and should diminish Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns though the early part of next week.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lericos
SHORT TERM...Lericos
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Lericos
MARINE...Lericos
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers

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