Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Updated at: 1035am
The main updates this morning were based on a forecast of a rainy
and cloudy day over much of the area. PoPs were bumped up to
categorical in the morning hours where a large area of rain is
located (centered roughly near Lake Seminole). Hourly temperatures
were trended towards the RAP which seemed to initialize quite well
the location of the area of rain as well as the low and mid-level
circulations associated with the lingering tropical wave. This
resulted in high temperatures that were cooler than the previous
forecast - in the mid 80s in many areas - and that may even be a
stretch in areas like Marianna and Bainbridge which could very
well see rain and dense cloud cover for much of the daytime hours.
Therefore, the trends in temperature will be closely monitored in
the event another update is warranted. The only other change was
to add heavy rain wording into the areas with highest PoPs. Our
12z TAE sounding showed very high PWATs around 2.33", which is
close to 130% of normal. Combined with light flow, moist adiabatic
lapse rates, and very deep warm cloud depth over 14,000 feet - the
ingredients are all there for any showers or storms to be
efficient rainfall producers. Bias flags already inidicate that
some of the area radars are underestimating the rain rates in this
tropical environment, so areas that receive persistent heavy
rainfall will need to be closely monitored for localized flooding
potential. Given 3-hr BiasHPE rain estimates already close to FFG
in some areas, and 1-hr values up to 60% of FFG in the areas of
heavier rain, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that
additional rain today will lead to a few spots of flooding. This
threat will be added to the HWO. We could very well see a repeat of
yesterday to the east of the circulation center of the tropical
wave, just displaced slightly further west to account for the
westward drift of the wave. Yesterday there was a substantial amount
of deep convection and thunderstorms that formed near the I-75
corridor in Florida near a low-level convergence zone. It appears
that a similar band of deep convection is beginning to form from
near K40J to the south into offshore areas. This could affect the
eastern portions of our forecast area today, from CTY/40J north to
near VLD, TMA, FZG.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...
On Tuesday we will still be dealing with the passing trough
mentioned above, and will likely have another waiting in the wings
across eastern Florida. In addition to the surface features, the
upper level trough will expand into the Southeast, providing a bit
more synoptic scale forcing for ascent. These combined will keep
rain chances well above average on Tuesday, and high temperatures
near or just below average. By Wednesday, the surface subtropical
ridge will begin to nose back in from the east and start to shunt
the pesky tropical waves out of the local area. However, it won't
be until late in the day that the ridge will take hold, and the
upper level trough will remain in place, so we will probably still
have plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity across our western
forecast area. Thus, rain chances will remain above average in
those locations on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
Not much change from the previous extended package, as our very
atypical summer governed by an unusually steep Upper Level Trof
down  the eastern seaboard will continue through the bulk of the
period. This "disturbed pattern" combined with onshore SW flow at
lower levels, and plenty of deep layer Tropical Moisture will keep
rain chances elevated and daytime high temperatures near or slightly
below climo. By the very end of the period (Sunday and Monday), we
could see some slight improvements to the current fcst as the Trof
tries to exit off to the E, but the deep layer moisture might very
well remain entrenched over the region due to very weak forcing, so
PoPs could still remain elevated. Therefore, will likely need to see
a few more model cycles before confidence is high enough to make a
final determination.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 12Z Monday]...
With plenty of deep layer moisture combined with a weak low-mid
level circulation moving slowly westward through the CWA today, low
clouds, showers, and thunderstorms will be sct to widespread at the
terminals. With the weakly defined "center" of this circulation
over central portions of the CWA as of early this morning, the best
chances for rain will be at TLH, ABY, DHN, and ECP, with rainfall
already ongoing at TLH and and ABY. VLD has temporarily cleared out,
which should hold off the convection until later this morning or
early this afternoon, but this clearing may also allow for a 1-2 hr
period of Low Cigs and Vis between 12 and 14 UTC. Overall, expect
prevailing MVFR to IFR conditions at most of the Taf sites with the
with periods of VFR conditions possible outside of the convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next couple of
days as a series of weak tropical waves traverse our waters from
southeast to northwest. Winds and seas will remain below headline
criteria through the period. However, winds will briefly rise to
near cautionary levels as the subtropical ridge noses back in over
our coastal waters Tuesday through Wednesday. Additionally, swells
from Tropical Storm Ernesto will enhance seas beginning on
Wednesday, especially over our western waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A generally wet and disturbed pattern will continue across the
Tri-State area for much if not all of the upcoming week. This will
keep afternoon relative humidities well above critical thresholds
through the period.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Gould
AVIATION...Gould
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Gould

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1050 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-070800-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1050 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2012 /950 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN REGIONS OF
TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN BANDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 TO
5 INCHES. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF RAINFALL
OR FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

08/DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1217 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2012

FLZ012-112-061705-
INLAND BAY FL-COASTAL BAY FL-
1117 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BAY COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1205 PM CDT

AT 1110 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED SOME
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WEST BAY. THE STORMS WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY.

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY THE PANAMA CITY AIRPORT...BUT AT THIS
TIME...DOPPLER RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE STRONG ROTATION WITH THE
STORM. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS TO
FORM AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE. THESE FUNNELS WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO
MAKE CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.

LAT...LON 3043 8578 3028 8552 3019 8565 3013 8575
      3024 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 150DEG 3KT 3030 8581