Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1110 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2012

.NEAR TERM...[Today]

For today we are expecting scattered showers across the area, with a
40 percent chance in the northeastern portion, and a 50 percent
chance across the rest of the area.  This was mainly based off of
the sea breeze circulation, classifying today as a regime 6.

Upper air data from 12 UTC does show an upper low developing off the
Northeast Florida Coast, but this feature is a little far away today
to create an impact on our local weather. The 12 UTC KTAE sounding
shows the potential for moderate instability this afternoon (though
not as high as what we saw on Thursday). The sounding also shows
that storm motion at 0-6 km is essentially at 0 knots.  This means
that the convection that does develop today will most likely move
very little. As a result, the strongest storms could produce areas
of localized flooding. With a little more cloud cover today,
temperatures will be in the low 90s all across our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
[Tonight through Sunday] Scattered diurnal convection will
diminish tonight. On Saturday and Sunday, differences start to
emerge between the NAM and the GFS. The NAM moves a weak tropical
wave through the area on Saturday, and the GFS holds off until
Sunday. Both models have an upper level shortwave dropping south
and affecting the western zones on Saturday, so the likely PoPs
from the previous forecast were maintained across that area.
Elsewhere, scattered convection is expected on Saturday. PoPs were
increased to likely on Sunday across northwest Florida in favor of
the GFS with the expectation that a weak tropical wave will move
westward through the area with increased moisture late in the day.
This has some support from the 00z ECMWF as well. Seasonably warm
temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
[Sunday night through next Friday] Weak tropical wave axis is
forecast to pass across the forecast area late Sunday into Monday.
With the southeasterly flow in the wake of the wave and a weakness
aloft between subtropical ridges to the east and west, expect
deep layer moisture to remain elevated on Monday with at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast
area. The onshore low-level flow trajectory is expected to
continue through at least Thursday, keeping PoPs elevated and
temperatures near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
[through 12Z Saturday] Fog has once again developed this morning
across parts of Southwest and South Central GA. This fog has
produced VLIFR conditions at ABY. IFR ceilings are being reported
DHN with MVFR at ECP. The 12Z KTAE sounding shows that the surface
inversion is very shallow this morning. Therefore, we expect the
lowest conditions to improve rapidly, by around 13Z or possibly as
late as 14Z. After VFR conditions establish themselves later this
morning, a typical summertime pattern is expected for the rest of
today, with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Best
chances for TSRA this afternoon appear to be at the FL terminals,
where tempos are included in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure south of the area is expected to keep
light onshore winds through today. A tropical wave will then
move west across the area late in the weekend swinging winds
around to the east and southeast. A trough will establish itself
north of the waters early next week with a ridge to the south.
This will bring a return to light onshore winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon Relative Humidity levels are expected to remain above
critical thresholds for the next week, so red flag conditions are
not expected.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Near Term...Godsey/Guba
Short Term/Marine...DVD
Long Term/Aviation/Fire Wx...Camp

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
218 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-041100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
218 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012 /118 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT
EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A WATERSPOUT OR TWO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY WITH ANY STORMS OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP WITH CURRENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

DVD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ017-027-031830-
LEON FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LEON AND WAKULLA
COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

AT 130 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0)
9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3031 8460 3063 8417 3047 8404 3043 8408
      3036 8408 3016 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 235DEG 16KT 3029 8445

38-GODSEY