Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1150 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2012

.UPDATE...With the substantial amount of drying and warming in the
morning soundings (especially to the east where TAE has dropped down
to a PWAT of 1.41", with a significant 2-3 degree Celsius rise in
the layer between 1000 and 725 mb), trimmed back rest of the morning
to 18Z PoPs to silent 10s from just west to the Apalachicola and
Chattahoochee Rivers, eastward across the remainder of the interior
CWA. Left the 20s in to the west, and 20s and 30s in over the
Coastal Waters, where moisture content, Sfc Tds, and mid-level
Theta-E values are higher. This should hold true in the afternoon as
well, and left current NW to SE PoP Gradient in place from the
previous package (60%-20%). This scenario is also very well depicted
in most of the Hi-Res WRF runs, so the current aftn package appears
to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12Z Sunday]...Expect mainly VFR conditions to
prevail throughout the early morning hours across the region except
for brief MVFR Cigs ECP and LIFR Conditions at VLD. With the morning
sounding drying out substantially at TLH, will amend Tafs to remove
the convective tempo, and may have to pull back on ABY as well.
Also, already pushed the timing back on ECPs Taf from a 15Z start to
to 18Z. VFR cigs and vsbys good bet after 08z, especially at
ABY/DHN/ VLD.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will be a little higher over our western
waters this morning. Otherwise, conditions will be fairly uniform
with light winds and low seas across the entire marine area through
at least through the middle of next week. Winds should remain
generally out of the south today, then become more out of the south
to southeast Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Gould

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