Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1125 AM EDT Thu May 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for today will be the chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon. The 12z sounding showed fairly steep lapse rates in the
mid-levels. A modified parcel of 95/68 showed the potential for
2600 J/Kg of CAPE. With dry air aloft, we are expecting the
potential for small hail and gusty winds with thunderstorms that
develop along the seabreeze.

Synoptic winds will be 10 kts or below from the WSW putting us in a
Type 4 seabreeze regime. We modified the POP coverage based on what
the hi-res WRF guidance was suggesting, and based on an approaching
MCV and upper level trough from the west. So for these reasons we
have 40 percent POPS extending across the length of the FL panhandle
and southern GA and AL counties, with a 50 percent zone from TLH to
western extent of our CWA.

Aside from the thunderstorm potential expecting a hot and balmy day
with highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVAIATION...
This morning's fog has lifted and we have VFR conditions
area wide. Scattered convection is expected this afternoon across
the region. The best chances for TSRA today look to be at
TLH/ECP/DHN based on the latest guidance forecasts. Will include
tempos at these sites and vicinity groups elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  71  89  69  89 /  50  30  50  40  10
Panama City   88  75  85  70  88 /  40  30  40  30  10
Dothan        94  71  88  63  86 /  50  30  50  20  10
Albany        95  70  88  65  86 /  30  20  50  20  10
Valdosta      95  69  91  68  90 /  40  30  50  40  10
Cross City    92  70  88  67  88 /  30  30  30  30  20
Apalachicola  88  75  85  72  86 /  20  20  40  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Walsh/Godsey/Camp

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-011100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
317 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 /217 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THERE ARE
ALSO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY IN CASE
ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

DVD

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