Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT Wed May 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern has continued over the last 24 hours with
a strong subtropical jet over the northern and central Gulf of
Mexico and a mid-upper level low centered roughly over southern
Mississippi early this afternoon. The upper level low was apparent
on water vapor loops with a 60-70 knot jet streak extending from
south of the Mississippi River Delta into our forecast area. Morning
thunderstorm activity around Apalachee Bay, and continuing storms
along a quasi-stationary front southwest into the open Gulf have
kept higher cloud debris pushing across the southeastern half of our
local forecast area. At the surface, there was a lack of a well
defined front or boundary, with a pressure trough noted from the
Piedmont of North Carolina southwestward towards Panama City and
then points offshore. Surface wind convergence was increasing
roughly along this axis early in the afternoon, aided in part by
outflow from earlier storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM [This Afternoon and Tonight]...
Convective development for the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening hours remains somewhat questionable. Numerical models did
not handle the morning convection very well (even the runs that
initialized at 12z this morning). Where there is more direct
sunlight (western half of the area), the low-level moisture is more
shallow and surface dewpoints are likely to mix out as low as the
upper 50s. This would substantially reduce potential instability.
Meanwhile, deeper moisture exists in the boundary layer closer to
the Gulf and at points further east, however the mid and upper level
cloud debris has prevented air mass recovery and heating. Therefore,
it seems possible that we could see more suppressed convection than
we have in the previous several days. If storms develop, there is
the potential for some severe weather. The 12z TAE sounding showed
fairly steep lapse rates in the 0 to -20C layer, and was a 27% match
to significant hail analog soundings (per the SPC website). The
strong upper level jet streak pushing into the area was increasing
effective bulk shear to around 30 knots or so. Any storms that
develop would probably diminish quickly in the evening. We may see
some northeast propagation of thunderstorms that develop along the
front over the Gulf overnight similar to what we saw early this
morning. Therefore, PoPs were gradually shifted south by the 06-12z
timeframe. There may also be some patchy fog, but with uncertainties
about cloud debris, none was included in the forecast yet.

.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Friday Night)...Very little changes
were made from the previous forecast package for the next couple of
days, as we still expect to maintain a general West to East PoP
gradient, with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms to the
East during the afternoon and early evening hours. This convection
will continue to be generated by the weakening Upper Level Low which
is sliding slowly eastward along the northern Gulf Coast, while it
is slowly sheared apart over time. Rain chances are expected to
range from 20 to 50 percent on Thursday, and 20 to 40 percent on
Friday. Max Temps are expected to remain near climo values through
the period, with low temps running a bit above.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
Guidance is coming into better agreement in the extended period.
Thus confidence is increasing in a slightly wetter solution. Broad
troughing in the upper levels across the southeastern part of the
country will cutoff and form a closed upper low centered over north
Florida. At the surface, high pressure will nose down the eastern
U.S. coastline resulting in moist easterly flow locally. The PoP
forecast is rather tricky as it greatly depends on the position of
the upper low. Should the low drift east, the local area would be
much drier than if it remained centered overhead or shifted
westward. For now, it appears as though the upper low will allow for
a sharp east to west PoP gradient with drier conditions to the west.
By the weekend, the upper low begins to slowly absorb into the mean
flow and pull northeast. This will allow for a drying trend heading
into next week. Temperatures will remain near average through the
extended period.

&&

.MARINE...Outside of any convective wind gusts, winds and seas will
remain generally light through Friday as the Surface Pressure
Gradient remains weak. By Friday Night and Saturday, however, this
gradient is expected to tighten sufficiently to produce cautionary
or near cautionary conditions in an easterly flow regime, as stronger
Surface Ridging builds in to our north, and an area of lower
pressure develops well off to our south.

&&

.AVIATION  (THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)...
VFR conditions will remain throughout the afternoon despite a few
isolated showers expected to the southern and eastern terminals
effecting TLH, ABY, and VLD. With calm winds overnight, fog is the
next main concern reducing conditions to MVFR at TLH, ECP, and VLD
around 08Z. VFR conditions will return by 13Z at all locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Due to high relative humidities, red flag criteria
will not be met for any portion of our CWA over the next several
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  88  63  85  64 /  30  40  20  20  20
Panama City   67  87  67  86  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
Dothan        63  89  64  86  64 /  20  20  10  20  10
Albany        63  88  64  86  63 /  30  30  20  20  20
Valdosta      64  88  63  85  63 /  30  50  30  40  30
Cross City    64  87  63  87  63 /  30  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  66  83  66  84  68 /  30  30  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Synopsis/Near Term/Fire Wx...Lamers
Aviation...Schaer
Long Term...Harrigan/Vickery
Rest of Discussion...Gould

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
639 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

FLZ012-112-162330-
INLAND BAY FL-COASTAL BAY FL-
539 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BAY COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

AT 536 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF LYNN HAVEN...OR NEAR VICKSBURG...
MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0)
9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3044 8560 3028 8561 3030 8584 3044 8584
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 094DEG 4KT 3038 8569

25-CAMP

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