Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 PM EDT Tue May 8 2012

.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...Ongoing convective activity is expected to
linger a little longer than normal after sunset, but should
diminish by midnight across the forecast area. With debris
cloudiness lingering, it will be difficult for widespread areas of
fog to develop, even with moist ground conditions. Will indicate
patchy areas of fog in the forecast across the eastern areas where
fog was more prevalent this morning. Temperatures will be on the
warm and muggy side still out ahead of the surface cold front,
generally in the mid and upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Wednesday through Thursday night)...Upper low is
currently situated over Minnesota with a trough extending
southwest to another upper low over the desert southwest. The
northern portion of the overall trough is forecast to move east
and dig into the deep south through Wednesday, leaving the upper
low over the southwestern states behind. As the trough digs
southeastward, it will drive a cold front through the area late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. A moist and unstable airmass will
be in place on Wednesday ahead of the front. In addition, mid-
level flow associated with the digging trough will increase the
deep layer shear above 30 knots. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected beginning in the late morning across SE
Alabama and spreading south and east through the afternoon. With
the instability and shear in place, a few of the storms could be
severe with damaging winds and marginally severe hail being the
primary threats. Will add some enhanced wording to the wx grids
for Wednesday.

The front will push through the area Wednesday night with a much
drier and slightly cooler airmass in its wake. This will lead to
cooler mornings for Thursday and Friday and a less humid afternoon
for Thursday.

.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...After the cold frontal
passage in the short term period, the extended fcst will begin
with fair, dry, and very close to seasonable temperatures through
at least the first half of the weekend, before the unusually
active Sub-Tropical Jet Stream for this time of year pushes
another Upper Level Low Pressure System our way from the west.
Although there have been some subtle run to run differences with
the ECMWF, it has clearly been the more consistent model than the
GFS (which now appears to be opening up the Upper Low too quickly
into a fairly flat shortwave trof). This new GFS solution would
split much of the deep layer moisture both off to our north and
south respectively, and result in lower Pops and QPF which we do
not expect at this time. Therefore, leaned more heavily on the
Euro solution, which would indicate a fairly wet period across the
CWA from late Saturday night through Tuesday. However, to keep
within ISC tolerances, and allow for changes in the model guidance
in later runs, did not bump up PoPs quite as high as we would have
liked to at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (through 18Z Wednesday)...Afternoon and evening
convection will result in periods of MVFR/IFR conditions at the
terminals through 02z. Thereafter, MVFR restrictions due to fog
will become a concern at TLH/ECP/ABY/VLD. It appears that there is
greater potential for restrictions at VLD for IFR conditions prior
to sunrise, so included this in the latest TAF package.
Thunderstorm development will likely occur earlier on Wednesday
across the region, however, confidence in the exact placement of
this development is too low to include mention in the TAF forecast
at this time.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front, with moderate offshore developing in the
wake of the front Wednesday night into Thursday. A brief period of
exercise caution conditions will be possible behind the front.
Winds and seas will then weaken through Friday before increasing
again over the weekend as low pressure develops along the central
Gulf Coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No concerns are expected until at least Thursday.
A drier airmass will move into the region behind a cold front on
Thursday resulting in the potential for red flag conditions in
North Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  86  60  83  55 /  40  60  40  10  10
Panama City   70  82  64  82  63 /  30  50  40  10  10
Dothan        68  85  58  82  57 /  40  70  30   0  10
Albany        67  85  58  83  56 /  40  70  40  10  10
Valdosta      66  85  60  82  57 /  40  60  50  10  10
Cross City    66  86  64  84  58 /  40  40  40  20  10
Apalachicola  69  82  65  81  63 /  20  50  30  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Camp/Godsey/Gould

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-090930-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
527 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012 /427 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AGAIN TODAY...AND SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD...AND IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OR DAMAGE...HAIL...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD BE APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

08-LAMERS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW VICTORIA          31.56N 85.93W
05/08/2012                   COFFEE             AL   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            A COUPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF CR 209 AND CR 210.

&&

CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

GAZ121-082030-
CLAY GA-
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CLAY
COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

AT 353 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF EDISON...OR NEAR BELLVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0)
9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3162 8494 3162 8482 3157 8482 3156 8480
      3154 8482 3153 8481 3150 8482 3149 8496
      3163 8501 3165 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 339DEG 4KT 3157 8487

38-GODSEY