Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL GA,
AND THEY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE AROUND VALDOSTA, ALBANY, AND TIFTON, WHERE THE BEST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS. ELSEWHERE, THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH WAS QUITE
UNEXPECTED. THIS HAS REALLY DAMPENED THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET, BUT THERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT (AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/MCS CURRENTLY OVER MS) TO WARRANT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT POP EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION
WILL KEEP US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR EARLY MAY. THE MEAN 1000-700MB FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY SO WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ON WEDNESDAY, SPC HAS A PORTION
OF OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 90
DEGREES BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY]...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PRIOR EXTENDED FORECAST,
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THE FAIR, COOLER, AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND IT MAY ONLY
LAST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS NOW (REST OF THU INTO SAT), AS THE UNUSUAL
AND ANOMALOUSLY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR APPEARS POISED TO SEND YET AN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEW 00 UTC RUN OF ECMWF IS ESPECIALLY ACTIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT TO BLEND IN WITH
THE GFS. IF THE GFS TRENDS MORE TOWARDS THE EURO ON LATER RUNS, IT
COULD BE A VERY WET PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS CERTAINLY MUCH
NEEDED ACROSS OUR DROUGHT STRICKEN AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED AROUND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WHAT WOULD NECESSITATE A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT IN SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE PERIODICALLY LOWER
CIGS AND VIS TO IFR-MVFR LEVELS ARE LIKELY. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY
SUNSET. OTHERWISE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR-MVFR VIS AND CIGS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT KVLD AND KTLH LATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO HUMID FOR ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   89  65  88  66  88 /  70  20  50  50  50
PANAMA CITY   84  69  87  69  84 /  30  20  40  30  40
DOTHAN        87  66  88  68  86 /  50  30  60  60  60
ALBANY        86  65  89  67  89 /  50  40  60  60  60
VALDOSTA      92  64  88  65  88 /  70  30  60  60  60
CROSS CITY    89  64  88  66  86 /  50  30  40  40  40
APALACHICOLA  82  68  83  69  84 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM/MARINE...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
545 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-081000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012 /445 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEY WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY...AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...OR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

08-LAMERS

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