Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

.NEAR TERM [THRU TONIGHT]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted in nrn stream by
ridging over wrn states, troughing over nrn plains and fast zonal
flow from Midwest to ne states. srn stream marked by broad ridging
over srn states with H5 ridge moving from srn ga to N FL. Looking
SWD, an H5/H2 ridge was oriented W-E along the Nrn Gulf. At the
surface main features are trough from S/Cntrl GA swwd into NE Gulf
and a surface ridge was over the N/Cntrl gulf. This combination has
generated a light SW steering flow over local area. This flow
allowed MCV to move NEWD across NE Gulf and help generate clusters
of strong storms across marine area and adjacent coasts from predawn
hours continuing into the afternoon. Ample cloud shield from this
marine convection combined with H5 subsidence and warming from upper
ridge stifled insolation and suppressed convection farther
inland. It also marked a significant late morning temperature
gradient from low-mid 80s at coast to mid 90s over S/Cntrl GA.

By 1 pm EDT, convection began to develop along the Nrn periphery of
the mid-high level cloud shield across Nrn tier counties which
experienced maximum insolation with temps in the mid 90s, PWs around
2 inches, deep moisture and 2500-4000 j/kg cape. Additional storms
were beginning to develop along the Nwd moving Gulf seabreeze. All
this will support intense updrafts/downdrafts especially near cell
mergers. Some of these storms will be strong to isold severe with
isold microbursts and damaging wind gusts during the rest on this
afternoon into early eve. However with weak low/mid level flow, any
severe storms will be pulsey and disorganized.

For tonight low sct convection will linger thru midnight. storms
will weaken with the loss of heating but a few may be strong and
cant discount isold severe pulse storm.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday]...
During the next few days, the above upper trough will dig ESE across
the ern states in response to an amplifying ridge across the west.
SE ridge in turn weakens which should increase chances of local
convection. at surface, digging trough sends cold front SEWD but
should stall and likely wash out across Cntrl al/ga. expect type 4
seabreeze (light SW) so combined with weakening ridge PoPs to be
about 40% to 60% NE-SW pop gradient across our region Fri and Sat.
with the chance of precipitation overnight falling down to about
20%. Local confidence tool with around 10% chance of severe weather
Nrn tier counties on Sat. However SPC keeps 5% outlook out of our
area. Sun, upstream ridge will develop far enough ewd to suppress
area convection so will go with 30 to 40% W-E pop gradient. Temps in
the mid 90s and dew points in the 70s will yield heat indices maxing
out to around 105 degrees but may be higher necessitating heat
advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
The latest global models are in good agreement in developing a mean
500 mb longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS. The
subtropical surface ridge will be to our south, providing our
forecast area with low layer southwest to west winds, while the
winds aloft will be out of the northwest. Synoptic scale forcing
appears to be weak (primarily limited to a weak frontal
system/trough in GA), so most of the forcing for afternoon & evening
storms will have to come from mesoscale systems like sea breeze
fronts. Our PoP and temperature forecast is near climatology through
this upcoming period, and very close to the 18 UTC Wed HPC forecast.
While we expect most of the thunderstorms to follow the typical
summertime diurnal cycle, there is a chance for some non-diurnal
storms as well, as MCSs sometimes form and propagate southward
through our region in these types of large scale weather patterns.
These features are very difficult to forecast in the short
term...let along the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered TSRA were developing around KABY and KDHN and KECP at 18z.
Set the tempo groups for KTLH and KVLD for a few hours later. It
appears that the cirrus canopy impacting most of north Florida is
delaying the onset of convection. Brief periods of IFR-MVFR vis/cigs
and wind gusts to 30 KT are possible in the stronger storms this
afternoon and evening. Light fog overnight may briefly reduce VSBYs
to MVFR levels, especially at KABY and KVLD.

&&

.MARINE...Expect southwest to westerly flow to continue throughout
the period. Some enhancement of the winds appears possible on Friday
night into Saturday as the local gradient tightens with the
approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will persist
for the next several days, as is typical for this time of year. rh
values will remain above critical thresholds so red flag conditions
are not expected anytime soon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  94  75  94  75 /  30  60  30  60  30
Panama City   78  91  78  91  78 /  30  50  30  50  30
Dothan        76  95  75  95  75 /  30  50  30  50  20
Albany        76  95  76  95  76 /  30  40  20  50  20
Valdosta      74  96  74  95  74 /  30  40  20  40  30
Cross City    73  93  73  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  30
Apalachicola  77  90  77  91  78 /  30  40  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

BLOCK/BARRY/FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
459 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-270900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
459 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 /359 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS BY THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...HOWEVER
SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVELY MONITOR WEATHER IN THEIR LOCATION AND
REPORT AS NECESSARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

FLZ015-026-027-115-127-262015-
COASTAL WAKULLA FL-COASTAL FRANKLIN FL-INLAND FRANKLIN FL-INLAND
WAKULLA FL-LIBERTY FL-
320 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
LIBERTY AND WESTERN WAKULLA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

AT 316 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CRAWFORDVILLE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CARRABELLE BY 325 PM EDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2971 8481 2975 8472 2978 8477 2975 8483
      2986 8490 3030 8452 3004 8436 2988 8451
      2990 8450 2984 8464 2980 8464 2983 8456
      2982 8456 2979 8458 2977 8468 2983 8466
      2979 8475 2976 8469 2968 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 152DEG 6KT 3005 8448 2976 8473

22-BARRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     TSTM WND GST     SOUTHWEST GA REGIONAL A 31.53N 84.19W
07/26/2012  M58.00 MPH       DOUGHERTY          GA   ASOS

            GUST OF 010/50 KNOTS AT THE KABY AIRPORT.

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE BELLVIEW           31.11N 84.52W
07/26/2012                   BAKER              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 253.

&&

DVD