Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Tallahassee, FL

064 
WWUS52 KTAE 242147
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
547 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

GAC037-061-243-242200-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0305.000000T0000Z-120724T2200Z/
RANDOLPH GA-CALHOUN GA-CLAY GA-
547 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CLAY...NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN RANDOLPH
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

AT 543 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES 
DOWN IN THE VICINITY OF CUTHBERT. THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR 
CARNEGIE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AYCOCK
MILL...MOYE...ZETTO...SUTTONS CORNER...BELLVILLE AND CORDRAYS MILL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CUTHBERT. 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE 
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3172 8461 3157 8455 3156 8495 3172 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 354DEG 9KT 3164 8476

$$

15-HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
WV analysis shows a large area of dry air over the southeast this
afternoon. Largely, this will limit deep moist convection area-wide.
That being said, there is enough moisture in the lower troposphere
to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the low level
convergence region associated with the embattled wind field between
a surface wave in the Gulf and high pressure systems to the east and
west. There is a possibility that some of the storms that form over
the Florida panhandle and nearby locations could produce sub-severe
downbursts, but confidence is rather high that severe thunderstorm
development is not a threat this afternoon. The loosely organized
line of storms that is developing will drift south through the late
afternoon and evening and diminish before midnight.

Max temperatures are still on track with warmer temps closer to the
upper ridge (NW) and more seasonable elsewhere (SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...Very interesting
forecast over the next couple of days, as the weakening Tropical
Wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico continues to get sheared apart
and moves further away from our Marine Area. This wave is being
sheared by a strong Upper Level Ridge which will be moving
southeastward from the Lower MS Valley Region, to position centered
over our CWA by Thursday morning. Although this Ridge will be
gradually weakening, we still expect afternoon high temperatures to
climb into the mid to upper 90s away from the immediate coast. The
hottest temperatures are expected over much of our SW and SC GA
zones on Wednesday, where the combination of heat and humidity will
push Heat Indices into the 108 to 110 degree range, prompting our
issuance of a Heat Advisory. Elsewhere, Heat Indices are still
expected to be fairly high, reaching between 103 and 107 degrees.
Although another Heat Advisory is not expected on Thursday at this
time, 103 and 108 degree Apparent Temperatures are still likely
across much of the area once again. As for PoPs, we expect the Sea
Breeze Circulation to be the predominant forcing mechanism for
convection during the short term period, with a Type 8 Regime
(characterized by a 5 to 10 kt Mean Layer Vector Wind (MLVW) between
1000-700mb.) This type of pattern usually results in a later start
to the Sea Breeze showers and storms with possible frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Will also have to monitor
conditions for possible stronger storms as well, but the bulk of our
parameters for Severe Weather do not look as favorable on the 12 UTC
model runs than they did earlier in the day. Rain chances are
expected to range from 30% over the northern portions of our CWA to
40-60% from N-S over the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. On
Thursday, we expect a gradual transition to a Type 4 Regime (a
1000-700mb MLVW between 5 and 10 kts), which should result in higher
PoPs across the board, with a 40-60% distribution from N-S across
the our Tri-State area.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
Not too much change to the previous thinking for the long term
forecast this cycle. The large ridge that has been in place across
the Southeast will gradually break down as the overall pattern
shifts to a trough in the Eastern CONUS and a ridge out west. Both
the GFS and Euro are consistent in bringing a weak frontal boundary
into the region by the weekend. PoPs are expected to increase
slightly this weekend as a result of the weakening ridge/approaching
boundary and the daily sea breeze circulation. This boundary should
weaken and dissipate by the first of the week, but with the presence
of the East Coast trough, rain chances late in the period are
expected to remain near climatological norms.

The temps will not vary greatly during the long term forecast, with
lows in the upper 70s and during the day the highs reaching mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the afternoon.
Scattered storms are expected to impact KABY, KDHN, and KECP through
the afternoon. The storms have the potential to impact KTLH and
KVLD closer to the evening hours. Areas receiving rain will have a
greater threat of experiencing IFR to MVFR fog, transitioning to low
ceilings tomorrow morning. There is higher confidence however that
KVLD will experience IFR visibilities near dawn. Scattered storms
are expected once again tomorrow afternoon, but will be late to
initiate and are not included in the current TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
The surface ridge axis will remain parked south of the area through
the entire forecast period. Therefore we can expect mainly west to
southwesterly winds at speeds below headline criteria. There will be
some modest enhancement near the coast with the afternoon Sea Breeze
as well as near any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As a ridge slides southeastward into our area RH values will lower
over our northern Georgia counties but not enough to meet our red
flag criteria. We will remain in a typical summertime pattern over
the next few days with late afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  96  75  96  75 /  10  40  30  60  30
Panama City   78  95  78  91  77 /  50  40  30  50  30
Dothan        74  98  75  96  74 /  20  30  30  40  30
Albany        74  99  75  97  74 /  20  30  30  40  30
Valdosta      73  98  74  95  74 /  10  40  30  50  30
Cross City    72  93  74  92  74 /  10  50  30  50  30
Apalachicola  78  92  78  91  78 /  30  40  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

GA...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-
     Irwin Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Harrigan/Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh/Harrigan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FLZ015>019-026>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-144>148-
156>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-251530-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-
WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-
BERRIEN-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1119 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-108-112-114-GAZ142-143-155-251530-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-EARLY-MILLER-SEMINOLE-
1119 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 /1019 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE
CREATED BY A WEAK TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF. THE THREAT FOR GUSTY
BUT SUB SEVERE WINDS EXISTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY DRY MID LEVEL
AIR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND
REPORT AS NECESSARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

HARRIGAN