Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2012

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 Remains in Effect until 8 PM EDT
This Evening...

.NEAR TERM [Until 6 AM Wednesday Morning]...
An upper level low pressure system to the east of the area has
spawned a stout short wave that is moving north to south across
the area this afternoon. The forcing combined with a very
destabilized atmosphere is producing widespread convection. Storm
are generally of the pulse variety. Damaging winds and hail are
the primary threat. Storms are generally moving south with the
associated short wave. Loss of afternoon heating and general turn
over in the atmosphere will gradually bring this convection to an
end this evening. Until that time expect showers and thunderstorms
will continue is a chaotic pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM [6 AM Wednesday Morning Through Thursday Night]...
The upper low over northeast FL this evening will only drift very
slowly to the west over the next couple of days. This extra spin
in the atmosphere combined with mid level temps that are cooler
than normal (producing steeper lapse rates) should enhance
convection. We also have a surface trough in the region. Sea
breeze regime will remain in the type 4/5 quadrant with southwest
flow. All of these components lend themselves to a continuation of
the active convective activity that we have seen this afternoon.
PoPs will remain in the 50-60 range during the afternoon hours,
but could easily edge higher. We do expect a weakening trend
during the evenings. SPC has the entire area under a 5 percent
risk for severe storms for Wednesday. Due to weak flow and shear
in the atmosphere, we anticipate primary storm mode will be
multicellular pulse storms with damaging winds the primary threat.
Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
By Friday the aforementioned trof begins to dive into the area
from the north. This trof will linger in the area oriented SW to
NE and enhance rain chances during the weekend. Exact alignment of
this trof will ultimately determine the PoP distribution, for now
we are favoring a more northern solution which will leave our
Georgia and Alabama with better rain chances. The GFS suggests by
Monday another shortwave pushes into eastern Canada and picks up
our lingering trof and moves it out of the area. On Sunday the GFS
is bold in bringing in drier air behind the trof and farther south
over the Tampa area and thus limiting our pops especially for the
NW zones and our southern most FL counties. With model solutions
varying in the Monday and Tuesday portions of the forecast we went
in favor of more or less climatological PoPs with the idea that
the it is more likely the Atlantic ridge will build back into our
area by that time.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 20Z Tuesday]...
Widespread thunderstorms over the area will persist into the evening
hours. These thunderstorms are particularly strong and pose a hazard
to aviation interests. Colliding outflow will create dangerous wind
shear situation in and near the strong thunderstorms. Activity will
wane in the evening as activity moves off shore to the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria through the
period as the area remains under the influence of the subtropical
ridge. Local enhancements can be expected near the coastline each
afternoon in the coastal sea breeze zone.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With plenty of low-level moisture keeping RH values above critical
levels there are no red flag concerns in the forecast. However,
fire management officials should be aware that dispersion indices
will be on the low side, in many cases below 30, over the next
couple of days. This is due to the fact that we are expecting
winds of uniform speed and direction through the mixing layer.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM/AVIATION...Lericos
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...Wool
LONG TERM...Harrigan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-181430-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012 /920 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT. A SEVERE STORM IS DEFINED AS
ONE THAT GENERATES WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH AND...OR ONE INCH
HAIL OR MORE. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS IN A CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TODAYS WEATHER...IN CASE
LOCALIZED ACTIVATION BECOMES NECESSARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER/HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TIFTON                  31.45N 83.51W
07/17/2012                   TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN.

&&

WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
307 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAIRO                   30.88N 84.21W
07/17/2012                   GRADY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE CITY LIMITS OF CAIRO.

&&

WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAUKEENAH               30.41N 83.95W
07/17/2012                   JEFFERSON          FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE ON COUNTY ROAD 259.

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAUKEENAH               30.41N 83.95W
07/17/2012                   JEFFERSON          FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE ON CHERRY TREE ROAD CLOSE TO
            HIGHWAY 27.

&&

WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CHAIRES             30.46N 84.12W
07/17/2012                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A CAR CRASHED INTO A TREE ON BUCKLAKE ROAD AT CHAIRES
            ROAD.

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW RALFORD GREENWAY  30.46N 84.18W
07/17/2012                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE AT BUCKLAKE ROAD AT PEDRICK ROAD.

&&

WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             WOODVILLE               30.31N 84.25W
07/17/2012  E0.75 INCH       LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0404 PM     HAIL             3 SE TALLAHASSEE        30.41N 84.25W
07/17/2012  E0.75 INCH       LEON               FL   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT BLAIRSTONE ROAD AND ORANGE AVENUE.

&&

WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE TALLAHASSEE       30.42N 84.21W
07/17/2012                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND LIMBS ON POWERLINES AT OLD ST. AUGUSTINE ROAD
            AT SOUTHWOOD PLANTATION ROAD.

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E TALLAHASSEE         30.43N 84.19W
07/17/2012                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE ON ROAD AT MARCH ROAD AT APALACHEE PARKWAY.

0419 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ESE CONCORD             30.56N 84.04W
07/17/2012                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE/LIMBS DOWN ON POWER LINE AT RO CO CO ROAD AND
            VETERANS MEMORIAL DRIVE.

&&

WOOL