Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2012

.DISUCUSSION...
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a TUTT cell situated over
north FL, and a weak vorticity max propagating southwestward over
central AL. The Tutt low appears to be the most significant
feature, as it impacting the mid to upper tropospheric winds and
moisture profile over our region. While it's possible these two features
could generate some pockets of weak vertical motion today, the
primary focus for deep moist convection will likely come from sea
breeze fronts and outflow boundaries. The CAM NWP guidance
consensus generates most of the convection late this afternoon
across south central GA and north FL, where there will likely be
the greatest amount of SBCAPE, deep layer moisture, and vertical
motion from colliding east coast and west coast sea breeze fronts.
The CAM NWP guidance then takes these loosely-organized storms
westward across much of the remainder of our forecast area early
this evening. Of course there will be thunderstorm development elsewhere
today as well, but this activity may be more isolated. It is yet
unclear as to how the aforementioned AL vort max and associated
upper level clouds will impact today's convective development. The
latest consensus of statistical and CAM NWP guidance suggests that
today's PoP is about 60%, which a slight reduction from the
previous forecast. This is perhaps due to the fact that Precip
Water values are at average levels (as opposed to above- average),
and the apparent lack of significant large scale ascent. Either
way, 60% is still above our climatological PoP.

With the K Index being so high, we expect today's storms to be
prolific lightning producers, which will be the main threat to
most people today. A secondary threat will be isolated strong to
severe storms. The CAM NWP guidance simulates several strong
updrafts today, and the SPC has our forecast area outlooked in a
5% chance of severe storms (within 25 miles of a point). Wind
gusts of 40 to 60 MPH and pea to quarter size hail will be
possible. Although we expect today's storms to have enough
steering flow to avoid stalling, they are likely to have very high
rain rates, and localized rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches in a
relatively short time are possible. This could cause flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas, especially in these storms
develop over a city.

&&

.AVIATION...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
which will cause temporary reduction to IFR vis and/or cigs, along
with very high lightning rates. Wind gusts to 35 KT are possible
with the stronger storms. Generally VFR conditions are expected
outside of these storms, even through tonight. Winds will be rather
variable less than 10 KT today, except for a 5 to 10 KT onshore
sea breeze this afternoon at KECP.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Fournier

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-181430-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012 /920 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT. A SEVERE STORM IS DEFINED AS
ONE THAT GENERATES WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH AND...OR ONE INCH
HAIL OR MORE. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS IN A CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TODAYS WEATHER...IN CASE
LOCALIZED ACTIVATION BECOMES NECESSARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER/HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1222 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             6 N POULAN              31.60N 83.78W
07/17/2012  E1.00 INCH       WORTH              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS QUARTER INCH HAIL

&&

TL