Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Tallahassee, FL

258 
WWUS52 KTAE 151952
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLC039-073-152015-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-120515T2015Z/
LEON FL-GADSDEN FL-
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN GADSDEN AND NORTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTIES...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ORCHARD POND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CONCORD...DARSEY...LAKE IAMONIA AND IAMONIA

LAT...LON 3069 8438 3067 8411 3053 8429 3054 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 218DEG 13KT 3060 8432

$$

08-LAMERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 AM EDT Tue May 15 2012

.UPDATE...
Previous forecast seems generally on track and very few changes
were made. Most of the focus was on the evolution of convection
through this afternoon, the associated distribution of PoPs, and
severe weather potential. PoPs were split out into 3-hourly grids
to get a bit more detail on timing of the best rain chances. So
far, the evolution of cumulus fields and light showers appear to
be close to a sea-breeze 'regime 5' from our local climatology
(stronger W-SW flow in the 1000-700mb layer). This should be
augmented slightly by a NW-SE low-level moisture gradient with
higher 0-1km mixing ratios situated over the SE half of our area.
Additionally, a weakly defined and stalled front is lingering over
our forecast area which should place the best focus for storms in
the eastern half. PoP grids were a combination of convection-
allowing model (CAM) guidance, ongoing trends, and sea-breeze
'regime 5' climatology. This places likely PoPs along and SE of a
Tallahassee to Tifton line.

The latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook places the eastern half of
our area in a region of 5% probabilities for severe wind and hail
(within 25 miles of a point). This seems reasonable as there will
be an abundance of instability. Additionally, wind shear will be
slightly stronger today as compared to yesterday - when storms
failed to show much organization. 14z objective RAP analysis shows
effective bulk shear has now climbed to around 30 knots over much
of our area, near the lower bound for supercell parameter space.
The greatest threat would seem to be for isolated occurences of
damaging winds, particularly in the area of likely PoPs (SE of a
TMA-TLH line) - or SC GA and FL Big Bend. Storm scale ensembles
of high-res model guidance show max gusts in that area around 20
m/s (close to 40 knots) with lower values to the north and west.
Forecast soundings also reveal favorable downburst parameters in
that area with an abundance of dry air in the mid-levels: max
delta thetae around 25C and higher WMSI values. As such, a mention
of damaging winds and heavy rain was added to the forecast in the
aforementioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  65  87  63  88 /  60  30  30  20  30
Panama City   81  67  84  66  84 /  30  10  20  20  20
Dothan        84  64  86  63  88 /  30  30  20  10  20
Albany        86  64  86  63  90 /  20  30  20  10  30
Valdosta      86  64  87  63  89 /  70  20  30  20  40
Cross City    85  65  86  63  88 /  40  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  82  67  82  65  83 /  30  10  30  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Lamers

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1115 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-160900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1115 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 /1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TIFTON GEORGIA...TO
QUINCY FLORIDA...TO APALACHICOLA LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF MAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER ANY REPORTS RELATED
TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

08/18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ018-GAZ158-151930-
THOMAS GA-INLAND JEFFERSON FL-
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
JEFFERSON AND SOUTHERN THOMAS COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

AT 302 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO...OR NEAR FINCHER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3059 8394 3063 8401 3067 8401 3067 8403
      3068 8404 3081 8398 3074 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 221DEG 15KT 3065 8397

08-LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ027-127-151945-
COASTAL WAKULLA FL-INLAND WAKULLA FL-
319 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WAKULLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

AT 316 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...OR NEAR ARRAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CRAWFORDVILLE BY 335 PM EDT.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3030 8449 3026 8421 3009 8445 3014 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 223DEG 11KT 3018 8446

08-LAMERS