Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tallahassee, FL

639 
WWUS52 KTAE 061800
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALC031-045-061815-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120506T1815Z/
COFFEE AL-DALE AL-
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN DALE AND NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES...

AT 1255 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEWBY TO BAREFIELD CROSSROADS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SKIPPERVILLE...ROCKY HEAD...BERTHA...JACK...BLUFF 
SPRING...JAVA...SNELLS CROSSROADS...BARNES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3154 8615 3162 8614 3162 8542
      3138 8542 3141 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 007DEG 8KT 3160 8614 3156 8545

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EDT Sun May 6 2012

.Discussion...Not many changes appear to be needed to the near term
grids with primary focus on coverage and intensity of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.  12z soundings from TLH and BMX
indicate very steep lapse rates are in place atop rich boundary
layer moisture with h5 temps from -11c to -14c.  This will support
moderate to strong instability with afternoon MLCAPE likely
exceeding 2500 J/Kg this afternoon as highs push 90f. Primary
hindrance for any sustained severe threat will be the weak winds
aloft.  Thus, storms will mainly be pulse in nature with brief-lived
intense cores.  The strongest of these pulsating storms should be
capable of hail around 1 inch in diameter and brief damaging winds.
Coverage and initiation locations of ensuing diurnal storms remains
problematic with only weak focusing mechanisms in place.  Storms may
continue propagating southwards out of central AL/GA...with
additional isolated development possible along the sea breeze or any
other weak, residual surface boundaries given the general lack of
capping this afternoon.  It is not out of the question to see
activity become semi-organized along a common outflow and shift
south across the CWA this evening with pulse-severe cores.  This
possibility is the reason SPC has placed area back under a SLGT in
the day 1 outlook.

&&

.Aviation (through 12 UTC Monday)...Partly sunny conditions will
become prevalent into the early afternoon as fog/low clouds have
burned off.  However, expect increasing chances of showers/
thunderstorms as the day wears on. Some of the stronger storms could
produce wind gusts at least in the 20-30 kt range with an isolated
severe gust and hail not out of the question at TAF sites.  This
activity is expected to move offshore/diminish during the evening
with VFR for several hours tonight before fog and low clouds again bring
MVFR/IFR conditions around sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
A fairly benign pattern is expected over the marine area the next
several days (outside of thunderstorm activity). Seas should be
generally 1 foot or less with winds below 15 knots.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Evans

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-070930-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
530 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012 /430 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH PEAK INTENSITY
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 3 PM AND 9 PM.

THE MAIN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BOTH THIS
MORNING AROUND SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT. THE DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...GENERALLY FROM TALLAHASSEE TO THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

08-LAMERS