High Surf Advisory 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

682 
WHUS42 KTAE 012209
CFWTAE

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
609 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS CANCELLED...

FLZ108-112-114-012315-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SU.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-121002T0300Z/
/O.CAN.KTAE.RP.S.0026.000000T0000Z-121002T0300Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
609 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012 /509 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012/

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2012

...Slight Risk of severe storms late tonight through Monday...

.DISCUSSION...
The 02 UTC regional surface analysis showed a 1000 mb low over
southwest MS, with a trailing cold front through the central Gulf
of Mexico. The associated upper level low was centered near the
OK-AK border, with plenty of deep layer moisture streaming over
our region from the tropics ahead of the front. Rain is all but a
certainty over our western zones tonight, but most of the region
from Tallahassee and Albany eastward will be dry. It appears there
will be enough vertical wind shear, instability, and lift for at
least some threat of severe storms late tonight, though mid
tropospheric lapse rates will be unimpressive. The main threat
would be marginally damaging wind gusts from bowing segments, but
an isolated tornado is also possible. We already saw a few
shallow, "mini" supercells earlier this evening, and there were
actually reports of wind damage from possible tornadoes upstream
in Mobile's area. The most likely time frame for severe storms
will be from about dawn through early Monday afternoon. The threat
should lessen later in the afternoon as the strongest winds aloft
shift north of the area and the 500 mb height falls weaken.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will spread from west to east beginning in
the early morning hours. Similarly, ceilings will fall to MVFR from
west to east ahead of the rain beginning late tonight. IFR ceilings
are possible in the heaviest storms, but will most likely occur
sometime tomorrow as the main line of storms passes across the area.
Patchy areas of fog will be possible near dawn at KVLD where winds
will remain rather calm overnight. Expect southerly winds to
increase significantly by tomorrow morning to around 20 knots, with
gusts as high as 30 knots (especially at KDHN and KECP). Winds will
begin to subside by the afternoon. It will most likely be sometime
tomorrow night before the rain clears east of KVLD.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Aviation...Harrigan
REST OF DISCUSSION...Fournier

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1041 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-020245-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1041 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012 /941 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS AND
SWIMMERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WHILE THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MARINE HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER