Areal Flood Warning 22, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Forecast this evening is largely dependent on ongoing convective
activity. Much of the area has been slow to fire today and as a
result, rain chances across portions of Southern Georgia look
rather low tonight with better chances further south. The
convection this evening will continue to be largely diurnally
driven with rain chances diminishing over land shortly after
sunset and increasing over the marine area after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Our region will remain within the large scale East Coast trough
through the period. Over the next couple of days, shortwaves will
move through this flow from time to time enhancing the potential
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Timing of these impulses
will make the forecast challenging. Model guidance is rather high
with rain chances through Sunday night and see no convincing
reason to deviate given the available deep layer moisture. Will
continue the previous thinking of keeping 60 to 70 percent pops
in the forecast through the short term period in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
With the mean upper level trough expected to remain quite
persistent across the eastern half of the U.S. through much (if
not all) of the upcoming week, impulses of energy rounding the
base of the Trof over the Southeast will combine with plenty of
deep layer moisture to keep above normal PoPs in the fcst
throughout the period. Also, with the increased cloud cover during
the day, the effects of the more typical afternoon sea breeze will
be limited, and high temps should average a bit below climo
values. While there still appears to be some chance of a brief
break in this pattern on Tue or Wed., the global models appear to
be closing this potential "hole" with subsequent runs, with yet
another more southward moving shortwave developing to our west.
This new shortwave may even enhance PoPs and QPF further than what
is currently fcst. While this does NOT appear to be the best
stretch of good "Beach Weather" by any means, the possibility of a
good stretch of widespread rainfall will certainly help many areas
to continue to chip away at our long term ongoing drought.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...
Thunderstorms are beginning to develop with widespread coverage
near the sea-breeze and should affect ECP and TLH first, generally
prior to 22z. VLD may be affected a little later as storms spread
inland (20-00z). There is less confidence in storms affecting DHN
and ABY, and the TEMPO group with TS was pared back to VCTS at ABY
to reflect this lower confidence. MVFR/IFR in and near the storms,
which may impact routes in and out of ECP and TLH in particular.
Fog overnight will depend on how quickly any cloud debris from
storms clears out. Brief MVFR included at the northern terminals
(DHN, ABY, VLD) where storms may be more isolated and thus cloud
cover may be more limited this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect west to southwest winds to remain in place across the
marine area through much of the period. Increases in winds to 10
to 15 knots will be possible each afternoon due to the sea breeze
circulation near the coast each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Typical of this wet summer pattern, Afternoon Relative Humidities
will remain well above critical levels over the next several days
and, and therefore, conditions will remain safely above Red Flag
levels.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/MARINE...Godsey
LONG TERM...Gould
AVIATION...Lamers
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-181945-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 /240 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THEY DID
THIS MORNING...BUT A STORM OR TWO COULD STILL BRIEFLY BECOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. EACH
DAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER/HARRIGAN/WOOL