Areal Flood Warning 14, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday).
Primary focus throughout the short term period will be on a
building ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft across
the Southeast. Observational data from 12 UTC this morning
indicate the presence of a large ridge in place across the Central
Plains. Model guidance indicates that this ridge will build
eastward into the South by Friday. With a dry airmass in place,
this high pressure ridge will only serve to increase convective
suppression into the weekend and result in much warmer afternoon
temperatures. Generally stayed on the high side of guidance for
temperatures each afternoon through Friday.

Before it gets very warm, there is the potential of flirting with
record low temperatures tonight across the Florida Big Bend. The
GFS-based MAV guidance is running as much as 6 degrees cooler than
its NAM-based MET counterpart. Opted for a slightly warmer
solution just above the record lows across the region. This is
based in part on the fact that the moist soils will likely limit
the overall magnitude of the radiational cooling overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday).
The main item of interest in the long term period is the
potential for 100 degree heat over inland areas. Both the GFS and
Euro build a strong upper level ridge currently located over the
plains eastward into the southeastern states. The center of the
upper level ridge is forecast to reach Georgia on Saturday with
850 mb temperatures in our forecast area ranging from 21-23C on
the 27/00z GFS to 22-25C on the 26/12z ECMWF. These values could
easily support temperatures around 100 degrees over inland areas
with the ECMWF temperatures perhaps approaching 105 in a few
spots. The hottest temperatures are currently forecast to be
across the Alabama and Georgia counties where less rainfall fell
recently and higher 850 mb temperatures are forecast. We will need
to watch for possible heat advisories over the weekend depending
on how high the dewpoints end up. Although it will be a few
degrees cooler over northwest Florida then Alabama and Georgia,
the ground is much wetter across northwest Florida which could
result in slightly higher dewpoints and elevated heat indices.

Rain chances look below average for this time of year with the
presence of the strong upper level ridge tending to suppress the
afternoon convection.

&&

.MARINE...Northeasterly winds will gradually diminish overnight.
High pressure will build over the marine area into the weekend
creating a typical summertime pattern. Local increases in winds
and seas near the coast are possible each day due to the afternoon
sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A very hot and dry airmass will remain in place
over the region through the weekend. Humidity values are expected
to drop well into the 20s for the next two afternoons. ERC values
over Walton County may approach 35 over the next two days.
However, with current values below 35 will not issue a fire
weather watch at this time. Elsewhere, conditions will not meet
red flag criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to continue into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  95  66  98  72 /   0  10   0  10   0
Panama City   66  89  71  91  74 /   0  10   0  10   0
Dothan        64  97  70 100  73 /   0  10   0  10   0
Albany        62  96  68 100  74 /   0  10   0  10   0
Valdosta      59  94  65  97  72 /   0  10   0  10   0
Cross City    60  93  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  65  87  70  90  73 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
GA...None.
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

Long Term...Gould/Walsh
Aviation/Fire Weather...Camp/Bolden
Rest of Discussion...Godsey