Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 641

September 18, 201231 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Sep 18, 2012, 9:45 AM EDT for 31 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 18, 2012, 9:45 AM EDT (13:45 UTC)
Expired
Sep 18, 2012, 5:56 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 31 counties

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 18, 10:45 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDurham, Granville, Person, Vance45 min
Sep 18, 1:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHGranville, Vance53 min
Sep 18, 1:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHFranklin, Halifax, Warren35 min
Sep 18, 2:37 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHGranville21 min
Sep 18, 2:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHHarnett, Johnston, Wake54 min
Sep 18, 3:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHCumberland, Harnett, Johnston, Sampson41 min
Sep 18, 3:24 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHCumberland, Johnston, Sampson23 min
Sep 18, 3:37 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHWake93 min
Sep 18, 3:38 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHFranklin, Nash, Wake14 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-09-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 533 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-09-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 221 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
533 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
545 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
221 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
313 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

355 
WWUS20 KWNS 181344
SEL1
SPC WW 181344
NCZ000-182100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF
ROTATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  EXPECT ONGOING ACTIVITY TO FURTHER DEEPEN INTO
SUPERCELLS AND/OR A BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 17, 8:14 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson and 4 more2 hr
Sep 18, 12:23 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba and 14 more97 min
Sep 18, 8:49 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 31 more116 min
Sep 18, 10:54 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBertie, Camden, Caswell, Chowan, Currituck, Gates and 4 more9 hr
Sep 18, 11:19 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe and 27 more86 min
Sep 18, 11:35 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCUnion85 min
Sep 18, 1:00 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Greene and 9 more5 hr
Sep 18, 1:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham and 25 more84 min
Sep 18, 1:27 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCamden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford, Northampton and 2 more63 min
Sep 18, 3:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBertie, Camden, Chowan, Gates, Hertford, Northampton and 2 more113 min
Sep 18, 4:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Beaufort, Carteret, Chatham, Craven and 40 more94 min
Sep 18, 6:15 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCamden, Carteret, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Gates and 5 more30 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.