Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2012
Tornado Watch 641
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Sep 18, 2012, 9:45 AM EDT for 31 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 18, 2012, 9:45 AM EDT (13:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 18, 2012, 5:56 PM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 31 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 10:45 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Durham, Granville, Person, Vance | 45 min |
| Sep 18, 1:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Granville, Vance | 53 min |
| Sep 18, 1:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Franklin, Halifax, Warren | 35 min |
| Sep 18, 2:37 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Granville | 21 min |
| Sep 18, 2:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Harnett, Johnston, Wake | 54 min |
| Sep 18, 3:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett, Johnston, Sampson | 41 min |
| Sep 18, 3:24 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Cumberland, Johnston, Sampson | 23 min |
| Sep 18, 3:37 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Wake | 93 min |
| Sep 18, 3:38 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Franklin, Nash, Wake | 14 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 533 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 545 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 221 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 313 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 4.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
355
WWUS20 KWNS 181344
SEL1
SPC WW 181344
NCZ000-182100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF
ROTATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT ONGOING ACTIVITY TO FURTHER DEEPEN INTO
SUPERCELLS AND/OR A BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...MEADSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 8:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson and 4 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 18, 12:23 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba and 14 more | 97 min |
| Sep 18, 8:49 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 31 more | 116 min |
| Sep 18, 10:54 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Caswell, Chowan, Currituck, Gates and 4 more | 9 hr |
| Sep 18, 11:19 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe and 27 more | 86 min |
| Sep 18, 11:35 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 85 min |
| Sep 18, 1:00 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin, Greene and 9 more | 5 hr |
| Sep 18, 1:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham and 25 more | 84 min |
| Sep 18, 1:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford, Northampton and 2 more | 63 min |
| Sep 18, 3:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Gates, Hertford, Northampton and 2 more | 113 min |
| Sep 18, 4:11 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Beaufort, Carteret, Chatham, Craven and 40 more | 94 min |
| Sep 18, 6:15 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Gates and 5 more | 30 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.